February 2016
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
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Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12
Funds Return History
13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 16
Markets Information
17 - 18
03
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Yield Curve
Economy As expected, CPI inflation clocked in at 4.0% YoY in February 2016, up from 3.3% in the previous month due to the low base effect. On a month-on-month basis, however, inflation declined 0.25% in February as compared to an increase of 0.21% during January. Food inflation declined 2.0% compared to an increase of 0.5% last month. The rebound in inflation is expected to be contained in the coming months as the government recently slashed petrol prices, which will have a direct and indirect deflationary impact on prices.
12.0%
Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) shrank by 23% YoY in the period July 2015 - January 2016 to USD 2.0 billion from USD 2.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. The deficit is now 1.2% of GDP as opposed to 1.7% in 7M2015. The reduction in the deficit can largely be attributed to a 6% YoY growth in remittances and an 8% YoY decline in the import of goods and services. On a month-on-month basis, however, the current account deficit went up 39% as the secondary income balance declined.
8.0%
11.0% 10.0% 9.0%
7.0% 6.0% 1W
In the PIB auction held in February, 3, 5, 10, and 20-year bonds were offered for sale. The cut-off yield on PIBs declined up to 60 basis points. A total of PKR 241.8 billion was received for 3, 5 and 10-year PIBs against the target of PKR 50 billion. The market is expecting a rate cut in the upcoming MPS after the government slashed petrol and CNG prices at the start of March, however upcoming debt repayments of approximately $5.0 billion during 2016 which could create pressure in FX markets could keep the SBP cautious. Equities Markets Review In February, the KSE 30 made up slightly for the massive loss in the previous month and closed at 18,383 points - up 1.12% as heavyweight sectors Banks and Oil & Gas recovered after a dismal run during the current fiscal year. The SBP's decision to maintain the policy rate helped to rally the banking sector. The Oil & Gas sector was up as POL posted above expected results and international oil prices found stability on the back of negotiations between OPEC and other major oil producers. However, overall, earnings season failed to create a much needed positive momentum in the market as rumors of regulatory investigations on leading business groups and foreign selling kept investors on the sidelines. The banking sector was the best performing sector with a return of 4.7% as fears of a further reduction in banking spreads were allayed after the SBP maintained the policy rate. Power Generation was the next best performer and was up 2.2% on the back of KAPCO which posted an above expected result and HUBC's safe heaven appeal as a low beta option in a volatile market. Chemicals were up led by FFBL and ENGRO as urea prices recovered. Oil & Gas sector gained 0.8% led by POL, which was up 17% on above expected result. All other stocks in the sector had negative returns. The major sectors that underperformed include Foods (down 10.1%), Pharma (down 2.6%) and Cements (down 0.04%). Foreigners continued to offload their positions (-$39 million). Mutual Funds (-$13.9 million) and brokers (-$7.0) were also major sellers. Individuals (+$29.4 million), Companies (+$17.9 million) and NBFC (+$10.6 million) were major buyers. Average volumes remained unchanged from last month at 60 million shares per day. Average traded value, however, went up 20% to $57.7 million.
6M
2Y
5Y
29-Jan-15
Outstanding advances worth PKR 3.15 trillion were extended to the private-sector in the 7 months of the current fiscal year - an increase of 10.0% YoY. Advances for machinery import saw the largest increase (up 79%), followed by fixed assets (up 25%) and securities shares and other financial instruments (up 21.7%). Fixed Income Review In the first T-bill auction held a few days after the MPS, cut-off yields saw a rising trend. The cut-off yields for 3M, 6M and 12M T-bills rose by 9 bps to 6.2591%, 8 bps to 6.2665% and 4 bps to 6.2758% respectively. The SBP accepted bids worth PKR 330 billion against a target of PKR 350 billion. In the second T-bill auction, the cut off yield on 3M, 6M and 12M T-bills declined to 6.2144%, 6.2239% and 6.2419% respectively. A total of PKR 186.5 billion was raised from this auction against a target of PKR 250 billion and total bids received PKR 467.2 billion. The most interest was shown in 12-month papers as market participants increased bets on another round of monetary easing during 2HFY16.
2M
8Y
15Y
29-Feb-16
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR
106.0
20.5
105.0
19.5
104.0 18.5
103.0 102.0
17.5
1-Feb
8-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
29-Feb
Market Rates
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% 1-Feb
10-Feb
6M KIBOR
19-Feb
O/N Repo Rate
28-Feb 6M T-Bill
Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) shrank by 23% YoY.
The KSE 30 continues to trade at a discount to regional indices. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE ratio of the KSE 30 has gone down from 9.0x in January to 8.6x in February. India's Sensex Index has a TTM PE ratio of 17.7x whereas China's Shanghai Composite Index has a TTM PE ratio of 14.2x.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
04
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets Review Developed markets started off February on a bad note as weak US economic data increased worries of a global slowdown. Consumer confidence in the U.S. went down from 92.0 in January to 91.7 in February and the housing market also showed signs of a slowdown. However, markets picked up momentum in the latter half of February as unemployment data improved which led investors to take bets on a more moderate reversal in monetary easing. Moreover, speculation was rife that the Chinese government will take steps to add stimulus. The S&P 500 declined 0.4% to close at 1,932 points and the Nasdaq closed 1.2% down at 4,558 points. Dow Jones, however, inched up 0.3% to close at 16,516 points. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopted a negative interest-rate strategy in January in order to push banks to lend aggressively amid a recession. However, fears are high that corporate earnings may dip as Japanese exports take the brunt of recent Yen appreciation. The Nikkei Index was down a staggering 8.0% in February. The Bank of England left the benchmark unchanged at a record-low 0.5% citing the decline in oil prices to be the major reason for status quo along with the recent rout in global equities. Also, uncertainty remains high over Britain's vote on its EU membership. The FTSE 100 gained only 0.2% in the month. Emerging Markets Review China's Shanghai Index declined 1.81% in the month with the index going down more than 4% on the second last day of the month. The measure has the worst performance among 93 global equity indexes as it has declined 24 percent this year. Investors were expecting the government to come up with measures to give a boost to the economy. However, the People's Bank of China indicated that there is no room for more stimulus. The index was down over concern capital outflows will quicken as the economy slows down. India's central bank kept the discount rate unchanged at 6.75% quoting heightened inflation risk and a slowdown in growth. The decision was in line with market expectation. India's Senses Index went down a staggering 7.5% in the month. Commodities Review Gold had the best month on record on the back of its safe haven status. The yellow metal was up 10.8% as worries over the global economic slowdown pushed investors to the yellow metal. Gold was also supported by the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates, which prompted the dollar to decline. Gold rises when dollar declines. Oil saw a brief lift-off after Saudia and Russia decided to freeze output. The market however reacted negatively later as Iran rebuffed the said deal. WTI and Brent reacted in opposite ways with the WTI down 4.3% and Brent up 3.5%. This is the second month in a row in the recent past where there was such a huge difference in the trading of these two types of oil. Coal on the other hand gained 2.3% on expectation of higher demand. Also, encouraging news from China at the end of January that demand from its power generation sector may improve due to cold waves affecting the northern parts of the country, helped in boosting prices.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 140%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index
120%
100%
80%
60% Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Valuations of International Markets 20 16 12 8 4 -
DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India China
P/E Multiple
Gold had the best month on record.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
05
Jan-16
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund generated an annualized return of 5.37% against the benchmark return of 5.25% in February 2016. The Fund outpeformed the benchmark by 0.12%. Over the last 12 months the Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 0.02% and generated a return of 6.33%. Asset allocation continued to tilt towards T bills which increased to 91% of net assets while placements with banks & DFIs fell to 8%. Portfolio WAM was increased to 50 days as excitement over lower than expected inflation and a possible rate cut in March drove secondary market yields down. Going forward focus will remain on T bills with selective allocation to fixed deposits at attractive premiums. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 55.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 1.50. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.08%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Cash 1%
AA+ 8%
Placements with Banks & DFIs 8%
AA+ 18% Govt Sec 91%
T-Bills 91%
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills Cash Others including receivables
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 % of Total Assets 52% 17% 8% 0% 0% 0% 16% 39% 91% 32% 44% 1% 1% 0% 0%
WAM* Days 92 0 45 0
* Weighted Average Maturity
Non Compliant Investments Name of Non - Compliant Type of Investment Instrument
Pak Brunei Investment Co. Pak Oman Investment Co.
COI COI
Value of Total Value of % of Net % of Total Investment Provisioning Investment Assets Assets before Held after Provisioning Provisioning 600,000,000 600,000,000
-
Disclosures Leverage as on February 29th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 50 Days
Open-End Money Market Fund 3,821 103.9098 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 1.00% and maximum of 1.25% of the average annual net assets Front End Load None Back End Load None Launch Date November 13, 2009 Benchmark 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'AA' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Low Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Performance
Govt Sec 16%
AA 66%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
600,000,000 10.56% 600,000,000 10.56%
10.39% 10.39%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LMMF 5.55% 5.50% 5.82% 5.55% 5.57% 6.33% 5.82%
Benchmark 5.75% 5.38% 5.40% 5.47% 5.69% 6.31% 5.40%
Simple Annualized FY16 - YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LMMF 5.50% 5.37% 5.68% 5.43% 5.49% 6.33% 5.68% 8.45% 10.71% 11.94%
Benchmark 5.69% 5.25% 5.28% 5.31% 5.61% 6.31% 5.28% 8.63% 10.95% 12.22%
Please note that the benchmark of the fund was changed in February 2014. Benchmark calculation of tenors which include months prior to February 2014 incorporate the old benchmark as well.
LMMF vs. Benchmark 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved. Tha Lakson Money Market Fund holds certain non-complaint investments. Before making any investment decision investors should review this document and the latest financial statements.
06
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review During February 2016 the LIF generated an annualized return of 10.11% against the benchmark return of 7.93%. The LIF outpeformed the benchmark by 2.18%. Over 8MFY16 the LIF has outperformed the average income fund by 2.34%. Asset allocation changed with T bill exposure increasing to 11%, placements with Banks and DFIs dropped to 15% while exposure to PIBs was trimmed to 18%. As a result the WAM of the portfolio declined to 496 days. Going forward the Fund will look to realize gains on its PIB holdings and look towards high quality corporate paper and MTS to maintain portfolio yield. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 15.7 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.39. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY16 would be higher by 0.15%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LIF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
TFCs 5%
Performance Govt Sec 29%
PIB 18%
Sukuk 1%
Open-End Income Fund 4,293 107.2420 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'A+' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Unrated 1%
Placements with Banks/ DFIs 15% Other 2% Cash 49%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Unrated 0.27%
A+ 59%
AA- AA+ AAA 3% 5% 2% AA 1%
T-Bill 11%
TFCs/Sukuk Portfolio Name of the Issuer Habib Bank Limited I K-Electric AZM Sukuk III Bank Al Habib Limited IV Bank Al Falah Limited V Askari Bank Limited IV PMCL VII
Issue Date 19-Feb-16 24-Feb-14 30-Jun-11 20-Feb-13 23-Dec-11 18-Apr-12
Rating % of Total Assets AAA 1.73% AA 0.96% AA 0.47% AA1.53% AA1.30% AA0.15%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LIF 9.58% 10.59% 10.06% 8.95% 7.70% 10.66% 10.06%
Benchmark 7.20% 8.23% 7.97% 7.30% 6.66% 9.79% 7.97%
Simple annualized FY16 - YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LIF 9.44% 10.11% 9.66% 8.67% 7.56% 10.66% 9.66% 12.03% 13.53% 14.54%
Benchmark 7.10% 7.93% 7.72% 7.11% 6.55% 9.79% 7.72% 12.52% 12.92% 12.08%
LIF vs. Benchmark 122 120 118 116
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills TFCs Sukuks MTS Cash Others including receivables
114
Dec-15
Jan-16
38% 19% 0% 4% 1% 0% 36% 3%
% of Total Assets 18% 22% 5% 4% 1% 0% 48% 3%
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on February 29th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 496 Days
Feb-16 15% 18% 11% 5% 1% 0% 49% 1%
WAM* Days 83 1781 0 2465 1091 0 0
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
07
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review During February, LEF lost 1.79% versus the benchmark return of +1.12%. However on a fiscal year to date basis the Fund outperformed the KSE30 Index by 9.33% by remaining underweight in the Banking and Oil sector. Overall exposure was trimmed from 85% to 83% as gains were realized across the board. Allocation to Oil & Gas and Electricity was increased as a rally in international oil prices improved the outlook for these sectors. Going forward, expectations of a rate cut in the March MPS and excitement over Pakistan's re-inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will drive the market provided foreign investors do not continue to aggressively shed their holdings. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 19.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 0.71. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LEF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings
Asset Allocation 6.82% 5.63% 5.28% 5.16% 4.83% 3.92% 3.77% 3.53% 3.39% 2.84%
Sectorwise Exposure
Jan-16
Feb-16
Chemicals Const. & Mat. Oil & Gas Electricity Comm Banks Others
14.90% 24.82% 11.60% 6.93% 12.33% 14.76%
14.69% 24.31% 12.57% 7.57% 11.59% 12.74%
Others 2%
Cash 15%
Equity 83%
Sectorwise Exposure Others
LEF
KSE-30
-5.46% -1.79% -4.11% -0.08% -6.33% -6.66% -4.11% 73.64% 142.23% 184.65%
-14.79% 1.12% -4.66% -3.03% -13.36% -16.12% -4.66% 23.66% 61.43% 92.24%
FY16 - YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16- YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
*Returns based on last working day NAV
LEF vs. Benchmark 300
Commercial Banks
Const. & Mat.
Electricity
250 200 150 100
LEF
KSE-100
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
0
Sep-15
50
Feb-16 83% 0% 15% 2%
Mar-15
Jan-16 85% 0% 14% 0%
Jan-15
Dec-15 88% 0% 11% 1%
Dec-14
Equities T-Bills Cash Others
Performance
Chemicals
Oil & Gas
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets)
Open-End Equity Fund 2,762 98.6215 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 2.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Feb-15
Engro Corporation Limited Pioneer Cement Limited Lucky Cement Limited DG Khan Cement Limited Engro Fertilizer Limited Hub Power Co United Bank Limited Cherat Cement Limited MCB Bank Limited Karachi Electric Limited
Fund Facts
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
KSE-30
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
1M Return 0.2% -7.5% -0.8% -13.3% 0.3% -0.4%
P/E 8.7 17.7 17.4 11.4 15.0 17.5
Div. Yield 6.4% 1.6% 3.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Disclosures Leverage as on Feb 29, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
08
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review During the month of February 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund generated an absolute return of 0.82% against the benchmark return of 0.47%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 6.36% over 8MFY16. With the outlook for global growth still depressed, the Fund will continue to avoid commodity exposure. Allocation has been taken in T bills (43%) and PIBs (34%), while Cash (24%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.3 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.76. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAGCF for FY16 would be higher by 0.06%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAGCF.
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF) Weight as of Feb-16 16.68 8.57 8.12 7.67 6.84 6.80 6.69 6.36 6.24 6.16 5.67 3.80 3.01 2.51 2.48 2.44
Cash 24% T bills 43% PIBs 6%
PIBs 34%
Commodities Exposure
Placements with Banks & DFIs T bills PIBs Global Commodities Cash
Benchmark*
LAAGCF
FY16-YTD February-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
4.85% 0.82% 1.60% 1.80% 3.24% 6.47% 1.60% 18.42% NA 30.28%
-1.51% 0.47% 0.41% -0.02% 0.04% -0.46% 0.41% 3.66% NA 18.03%
* The new Benchmark is effective from September 10, 2013.
LAAGCF vs. Benchmark
Benchmark
Jan-16
Nov-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 43% 42% 43% 33% 33% 34% 0% 0% 0% 24% 24% 24%
Sugar 8.57%
Sep-13
Soybeans 8.12%
Apr-13
Corn 7.67%
Feb-13
Feb-16 31.78% 28.07% 20.48% 19.68%
125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Nov-12
Gold 16.68%
Disclosures Leverage as on Februry 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Fund Performance
RBOB 6.84%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 192 109.0138 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Jun-12
Sectorwise Exposure as of Agriculture Energy Precious Metals Base Metals
Asset Allocation
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Sep-12
Commodity Gold Sugar #11 Soybeans Corn Zinc RBOB Gasoline Aluminium Brent Crude Heating Oil Copper - Grade A Light Crude Silver Natural Gas Wheat-Mineapolis Wht Wheat (Kansas Wheat) Wheat
Fund Facts
LAAGCF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
09
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review During the month of February 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 1.42% against the benchmark return of -0.09%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 5.15% over 8MFY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (24%), PIBs (50%) and Developed Market Equities (25%). Exposure in equities has been focused on US indices which offer a superior risk/return profile to other Developed Markets. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 2.8 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 0.95. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.04%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities Feb-16 % of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 3.18% Microsoft Corp 2.58% Exxon Mobil Corp 1.90% Johnson & Johnson 1.70% General Electric Co 1.61% Facebook Inc 1.49% Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.43% Wells Fargo & Co 1.37% Amazon.com Inc 1.32% Procter & Gamble Co/Th1.30% Vanguard S&P 500
Asset Allocation Cash 1% T-Bills 24%
DM Equities 25%
PIBs 50%
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 299 119.9249 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 15% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 1.25% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAADMF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of MSCI World Index and 6-month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Fund Performance FY16-YTD February-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
4.31% 1.42% 0.63% 0.50% 3.60% 5.93% 0.63% 26.6% NA 44.94%
-0.84% -0.09% -1.90% -2.53% -0.55% -0.47% -1.90% 20.93% NA 46.90%
Disclosures Leverage as on February 29, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Weight 97.32% 1.30% 0.48% 0.45% 0.21%
Jan-16
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Benchmark
Mar-15
Sectors United States Ireland United Kingdom Switzerland Singapore
May-15
Weight 95.48% 1.72% 0.87% 0.75% 0.51%
Jun-12
Vanguard S&P 500 (As of Feb-16)
QQQ ETF (As of Feb-16)
May-13
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
Jan-13
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 18% 15% 24% 48% 49% 50% 27% 25% 25% 7% 11% 1%
Nov-12
140 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 Sep-12
Instruments
Country United States China United Kingdom Singapore Netherlands
LAADMF Benchmark
LAADMF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation
Mar-13
% of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 11.19% Microsoft Corp 8.43% Amazon.com Inc 5.42% Facebook Inc 4.97% Alphabet Inc 4.95% Alphabet Inc 4.29% Comcast Corp 2.89% Intel Corp 2.87% Cisco Systems Inc 2.72% Gilead Sciences Inc 2.55%
QQQ ETF
Fund Facts
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
10
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
PowerShares QQQ ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type QQQ US Equity DES and click on Allocations
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type VUSD LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
11
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review During the month of February 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.44% against the benchmark return of 0.20%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 6.93% over 8MFY16. With Chinese, Brazilian and Indian equities continuing to face headwinds the Fund will avoid exposure in Emerging Markets. Allocation has been taken in T bills (53%) and PIBs (25%), while Cash (22%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of February 29th, 2016 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 1.11. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.03%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAEMF.
Cash 22% T-Bills 53%
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 53% 52% 53% 25% 24% 25% 0% 0% 0% 23% 24% 22%
Disclosures Leverage as on February 29, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
Benchmark
Jan-16
Jun-15
Nov-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Jul-14
Dec-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
May-14
Oct-13
Weight 14.46% 8.73% 7.26% 6.45% 5.93%
Dec-13
Sectors Banks Semiconductors Telecommunications Oil&Gas Internet
127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Jun-13
Weight 19.24% 15.08% 12.73% 8.23% 6.46%
-3.82% 0.20% -1.09% -1.59% -0.55% -3.11% -1.09% 6.90% NA 28.44%
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
EEM Composition (As of Feb-16) Country China South Korea Taiwan India South Africa
3.11% 0.44% 0.98% 1.03% 2.12% 4.26% 0.98% 13.84% NA 29.01%
Aug-13
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
LAAEMF Benchmark
FY16-YTD February-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
PIBs 25%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Fund Performance
Jan-13
3.44% 3.20% 2.92% 2.01% 1.52% 1.49% 1.13% 1.07% 1.02% 0.93%
Mar-13
Taiwan Semiconductor Samsung Electronics Co Tencent Holdings Ltd China Mobile Ltd China Construction Bank Naspers Ltd Industrial & Commercia Alibaba Group Holding L Hon Hai Precision Indus Infosys Ltd
Asset Allocation
Nov-12
% of Assets
Jun-12
As of Feb-16
Security
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 100 112.9018 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is Benchmark calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Sep-12
Emerging Market Equities
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.2.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
12
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Funds Return History The periodic returns for the funds have been presented below as per SECP's SCD Circular No. 16 dated July 03, 2014. The returns presented below are: Yearly returns for the last five fiscal years and Absolute returns for every fiscal year since inception The returns have been annualized for money market and income schemes where the performance evaluation is less than one year.
Last 3 and 5 Fiscal Years Lakson Money Market Fund (LMMF) Fund Benchmark
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15
11.69% 11.76%
11.19% 11.31%
8.76% 9.14%
7.90% 8.50%
8.57% 8.45%
11.50% 10.82%
11.57% 8.86%
9.21% 9.17%
8.38% 8.31%
14.17% 12.64%
20.44% 28.53%
9.74% 10.45%
40.02% 52.20%
32.15% 25.96%
23.93% 5.67%
6.42% 10.63%
10.52% 13.45%
9.64% 12.94%
7.76% 5.34%
5.85% 7.25%
3.44% 7.89%
4.24% 7.47%
8.86% -1.02%
6.23% 9.82%
5.46% 8.50%
6.40% 10.01%
4.96% 3.36%
Lakson Income Fund (LIF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Equity Fund (LEF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund (LAADMF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund (LAAGCF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund (LAAEMF) Fund Benchmark
Since Inception Absolute Returns LMMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
FY'10 6.77% 6.66%
FY'11 19.25% 19.21%
FY'12 32.63% 32.73%
FY'13 44.25% 44.86%
FY'14 55.65% 57.17%
FY'15 68.98% 70.45%
LIF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
7.16% 4.59%
19.49% 15.90%
33.35% 26.20%
45.63% 37.77%
57.84% 49.22%
80.20% 68.08%
LEF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
-0.66% 7.32%
19.65% 37.94%
31.30% 52.35%
83.84% 107.12%
142.95% 160.89%
201.91% 200.87%
LAADMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.42% 10.63%
17.62% 25.51%
28.95% 41.75%
38.96% 49.33%
LAAGCF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
5.85% 7.25%
9.49% 15.71%
14.13% 24.36%
24.25% 23.09%
LAAEMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.23% 9.82%
12.03% 19.15%
19.20% 31.08%
25.11% 35.49%
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
13
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of March 03, 2016
Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Financial Sector Opportunity Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB DCF Income Fund. NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Savings Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Financial Sector Bond Fund Islamic Income Funds ABL Islamic Income Fund Al Ameen Islamic Sovereign Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Income Fund Askari Islamic Income Fund Atlas Islamic Income Fund Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund JS Islamic Government Securities Fund MCB Islamic Income Fund Meezan Islamic Income Fund Meezan Sovereign Fund NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund
Money Market Funds
ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Money Market Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund Atlas Sovereign Liquid Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund PIML Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund UBL Money Market Fund Islamic Money Market Funds Al Ameen Islamic Cash Fund HBL Islamic Money Market Fund Meezan Cash Fund
30 Days 6.91 7.53 5.00 8.09 4.94 6.30 9.60 10.46 6.07 6.50 6.42 6.93 6.12 6.81 5.91 14.38 6.70
90 Days 6.94 7.23 5.48 6.52 6.07 5.26 6.88 8.58 5.36 6.56 6.89 6.89 6.48 5.94 5.59 11.09 8.25
5.73 3.80 6.24 4.28 4.05 4.98 3.71 5.72 3.68 1.17 5.30 4.84
Annualized Returns (%) 180 Days 6.59 7.45 5.84 6.58 6.07 5.52 5.92 7.57 6.07 6.28 6.89 7.41 6.19 5.83 5.36 8.86 6.15
270 Days 7.14 7.75 6.02 7.90 6.54 6.90 5.95 10.55 6.37 6.48 6.98 8.65 6.43 5.74 6.08 7.80 6.70
365 Days 8.03 8.12 5.72 7.84 6.73 7.62 6.66 10.02 6.99 7.78 8.13 9.08 6.84 6.79 7.09 8.08 7.31
6.07 2.23 5.57 5.09 4.48 6.56 3.04 6.26 5.82 5.60 5.63 4.48
5.68 2.94 4.50 5.09 4.32 5.28 2.45 4.86 6.07 4.54 5.34 3.47
6.01 3.78 4.56 5.07 4.92 5.62 2.88 5.06 6.27 4.97 5.84 3.01
6.57 4.76 5.14 5.34 5.68 5.97 4.05 5.84 6.45 5.7 6.01 3.08
5.20 5.03 4.82 5.08 4.81 5.56 5.26 4.82 5.24 4.85 4.74 5.40 5.38 5.10 5.78 6.45 5.47 5.48 5.77 4.85 4.45
5.50 5.24 5.14 5.42 4.92 5.67 5.37 4.37 5.56 4.98 4.76 5.64 5.45 5.44 5.78 6.29 5.67 5.64 6.11 5.03 4.94
5.71 5.37 5.30 5.48 5.31 5.95 5.65 4.59 5.61 5.32 5.18 5.73 5.49 5.80 5.65 6.11 5.84 6.03 6.31 5.30 5.22
7.04 5.70 6.00 6.14 6.56 6.47 5.68 4.91 6.10 5.65 6.33 6.78 5.91 6.47 5.86 6.87 6.79 8.23 6.30 5.84 5.22
7.23 6.29 6.34 6.55 6.75 6.78 6.91 5.53 6.48 6.11 6.59 7 6.31 6.79 6.19 7.08 6.99 8.22 7.48 6.27 5.78
4.63 3.67 4.13
4.45 4.33 4.35
4.62 4.56 4.32
4.61 4.50 4.75
5.03 4.75 5.36
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of March 03, 2016 Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund Islamic Aggressive Income Funds Al Ameen Islamic Aggressive Income Fund NAFA Islamic Aggressive Income Fund Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Alfalah GHP Stock Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Capital Mutual Fund First Habib Stock Fund JS Growth Fund JS Large Cap Fund JS Value Fund Lakson Equity Fund MCB Pakistan Stock Market Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust PICIC Energy Fund PICIC Stock Fund PIML Value Equity Fund United Stock Advantage Fund Islamic Equity Funds ABL Islamic Stock Fund Al Ameen Shariah Stock Fund Al Meezan Mutual Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Stock Fund HBL Islamic Stock Fund JS Islamic Fund Meezan Islamic Fund PIML Islamic Equity Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 22.76 8.92 13.35 5.45 8.79 7.82 22.92
90 Days 16.50 8.93 9.98 11.62 7.37 6.95 12.22
180 Days 11.25 8.08 8.63 9.78 7.15 7.08 10.37
270 Days 7.77 7.31 8.27 10.10 8.09 8.09 9.97
365 Days 7.95 7.76 8.27 8.43 7.82 8.43 9.1
13.80 5.98
8.94 7.32
7.83 7.58
7.81 8.15
7.49 8.05
(1.26) (6.32) (2.13) (2.13) (1.82) (1.47) (0.99) (2.91) (3.67) (3.57) (1.01) (2.49) (1.31) (3.44) 1.15 (1.61) (1.61) (4.50)
(2.64) (12.82) 2.54 2.24 (0.95) (1.66) (2.37) 0.60 0.58 0.44 0.55 (3.03) (0.03) (1.22) (4.50) (2.23) 0.00 (1.11)
(3.51) (16.19) (0.04) 0.06 (4.59) (6.31) (6.26) (2.07) (2.12) 1.75 (1.65) (5.53) (4.32) (2.28) (7.92) (8.30) (3.26) (1.28)
(3.02) 6.62 4.09 5.15 (6.93) (5.44) (7.39) (2.41) (2.16) 2.77 (1.56) (6.91) (3.58) (0.49) (11.60) (2.34) (1.86) 3.12
1.44 10.18 10.19 11.34 -5.9 -4.95 -6.2 -3.41 -1.5 0.17 -3.48 -1.78 1.1 -2.46 -7.4 -1.96 N/A 3.9
(1.33) (3.63) (1.43) (1.52) (3.86) (2.95) (1.70) (1.10)
(2.70) 0.58 (0.31) 5.30 (2.51) 2.35 0.10 1.84
(5.15) (2.08) (1.73) 4.19 (8.02) (0.59) 1.96 (1.01)
(4.72) 1.69 (0.57) 8.03 (8.33) (1.43) 1.23 (0.80)
0.59 2.61 2.89 15.25 -7.46 1.94 4.89 7.46
(3.57) (2.18) (0.83) (0.98) (2.86)
(7.68) (2.56) 0.13 (1.37) 0.21
(0.09) (5.07) (2.43) (3.73) 1.26
5.15 (2.72) (2.05) (3.97) 1.45
6.6 -2.17 2.36 0.19 0.6
(1.00) (1.01)
(2.34) 0.00
(6.11) (0.61)
(5.35) 1.73
-6.89 4.62
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund HBL Multi Asset Fund NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund Unit Trust of Pakistan Islamic Balanced Funds First Habib Islamic Balanced Fund Meezan Balanced Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of March 03, 2016 Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund Askari Asset Allocation Fund Faysal Asset Allocation Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund MCB Pakistan Asset Allocation Fund MCB Pakistan Frequent Payout Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund UBL Asset Allocation Fund Islamic Asset Allocation Funds Al Ameen Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund NAFA Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pakistan Int'l Element Islamic Asset Allocation Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days (1.56) (3.16) (3.79) 1.96 0.51 0.91 (0.28) 0.34 (0.95) 1.13 0.51
90 Days 3.65 (7.33) (7.94) 1.35 1.02 1.79 (0.10) 1.26 0.34 1.87 2.28
180 Days 2.49 (10.53) (10.92) 4.99 2.06 3.16 (0.74) N/A (2.49) (0.38) 2.38
270 Days 6.13 (11.29) (6.11) 5.08 3.03 4.69 (1.16) N/A (1.03) 3.10 3.95
365 Days 13.82 -11.57 -5.32 6.29 4.06 6.13 1.97 N/A 3.81 5.48 7.54
(0.68) (4.30) (0.08) 0.96 (0.84)
0.73 (4.79) 1.94 3.21 (1.29)
0.44 (8.02) 0.23 1.81 (3.74)
2.57 (10.98) 3.59 6.38 (5.92)
6.83 -10.45 9.85 10.12 -1.6
0.25 (0.56)
1.40 (0.93)
1.92 (1.46)
3.32 (1.45)
N/A 2.26
(0.71) (0.79)
0.10 (0.32)
(1.47) (3.55)
(1.01) (3.32)
3.49 0.78
Capital Protected Funds HBL Mustahekum Sarmaya Fund 1 Pakistan Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund
Islamic Capital Protected Funds NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund I NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund II
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
16
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % Markets
Index
YTD
3-mo
MSCI All Country World Index
-6.9%
-8.7%
Developed
MSCI World Index
-7.0%
-8.7%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
-6.8%
-9.1%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
-8.6%
-11.0%
China
CSI 300
-22.9%
-19.3%
1-yr
Total Return in USD and %
5-yr
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yrWorld
-14.1%
7.8%
-6.9%
-8.7%
-14.1%
7.8%
-12.7%
14.5%
-7.0%
-8.7%
-12.7%
14.5%
-25.2%
-33.2%
-6.8%
-9.1%
-25.2%
-33.2%
-18.4%
-10.8%
-8.6%
-11.0%
-18.4%
-10.8%
-19.5%
-11.2%
-22.9%
-19.3%
-19.5%
-11.2% 179.5%
Dubai
DFM
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
179.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
India
BSE Sensex 30
-11.9%
-12.0%
-21.7%
29.1%
-11.9%
-12.0%
-21.7%
29.1%
Japan
Nikkei 225
-15.8%
-18.8%
-14.7%
50.9%
-15.8%
-18.8%
-14.7%
50.9%
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-2.2%
-1.0%
-9.1%
11.0%
-2.2%
-1.0%
-9.1%
11.0%
Pakistan
KSE 100
-4.4%
-2.7%
-6.7%
177.9%
-4.4%
-2.7%
-6.7%
177.9%
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
-10.2%
-10.4%
-15.2%
-20.9%
-10.2%
-10.4%
-15.2%
-20.9%
UK
FTSE 100
-2.3%
-4.1%
-12.2%
1.7%
-2.3%
-4.1%
-12.2%
1.7%
US
DJIA
-5.2%
-6.8%
-8.9%
35.1%
-5.2%
-6.8%
-8.9%
35.1%
US
S&P 500
-5.5%
-7.1%
-8.2%
45.6%
-5.5%
-7.1%
-8.2%
45.6%
US
NASDAQ 100
-8.5%
-9.9%
-5.4%
78.7%
-8.5%
-9.9%
-5.4%
78.7%
Germany
DAX Index
-11.6%
-16.6%
-16.7%
30.6%
-11.6%
-16.6%
-16.7%
30.6%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
-1.1%
-4.5%
-15.6%
-9.0%
-1.1%
-4.5%
-15.6%
-9.0%
France
CAC - 40
-6.1%
-12.2%
-12.1%
5.9%
-6.1%
-12.2%
-12.1%
5.9%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
-1.3%
-5.2%
-17.0%
-36.5%
-1.3%
-5.2%
-17.0%
-36.5%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
-2.3%
-3.8%
-3.5%
-1.2%
-2.3%
-3.8%
-3.5%
-1.2%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
0.9%
1.1%
-12.6%
-2.2%
0.9%
1.1%
-12.6%
-2.2%
444.2%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors Automobile and Parts
-8.2%
-7.5%
-1.6%
444.2%
-8.2%
-7.5%
-1.6%
Banks
-57.3%
-56.9%
-64.5%
-9.7%
-57.3%
-56.9%
-64.5%
-9.7%
Chemicals
-22.8%
-21.2%
-24.7%
68.6%
-22.8%
-21.2%
-24.7%
68.6%
Construction and Materials
1.0%
8.7%
6.1%
876.5%
1.0%
8.7%
6.1%
876.5%
Electricity
-2.0%
-3.3%
1.0%
188.6%
-2.0%
-3.3%
1.0%
188.6%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
-16.3%
-14.1%
-46.1%
-24.1%
-16.3%
-14.1%
-46.1%
-24.1%
Food Producers
-10.8%
-14.7%
-24.9%
126.3%
-10.8%
-14.7%
-24.9%
126.3%
Non Life Insurance
-1.7%
1.4%
-6.1%
184.6%
-1.7%
1.4%
-6.1%
184.6%
Oil and Gas
-7.8%
-6.7%
-37.5%
-5.8%
-7.8%
-6.7%
-37.5%
-5.8%
Personal Goods
-1.7%
-4.3%
-16.3%
161.2%
-1.7%
-4.3%
-16.3%
161.2%
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates
1M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
SHIBOR
2.80%
2.90%
3.02%
3.19%
4.43%
3.23%
4.11%
4.45%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.69%
1.05%
1.27%
1.57%
1.18%
0.93%
0.88%
0.92%
India
MIBOR
7.68%
7.80%
NA
NA
Japan
TIBOR
0.07%
0.10%
0.16%
0.18%
0.34%
0.26%
0.26%
0.29%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.38%
3.74%
3.83%
3.92%
3.46%
3.81%
3.83%
3.64%
Pakistan
KIBOR
6.50%
6.35%
6.36%
6.66%
9.73%
6.97%
8.18%
9.13%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
8.17%
8.43%
8.92%
9.34%
10.24%
7.20%
7.09%
8.15%
UK
LIBOR
0.51%
0.59%
0.74%
0.99%
0.77%
0.75%
0.71%
0.67%
US
SIBOR
0.44%
0.63%
0.89%
1.18%
0.47%
0.51%
0.41%
0.37%
China
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 1W
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
2.19%
2.38%
3.10%
3.27%
3.04%
2.23%
2.79%
3.28%
India
India
8.31%
8.31%
7.63%
7.54%
8.37%
8.40%
8.36%
8.68%
Japan
Japan
-0.02%
-0.10%
0.07%
0.36%
0.04%
-0.06%
-0.03%
0.00%
Malaysia
Malaysia
3.14%
3.18%
3.86%
4.15%
3.12%
3.18%
3.29%
3.20%
Pakistan
Pakistan
6.50%
6.55%
8.23%
9.26%
9.64%
6.87%
8.02%
9.00%
Sri Lanka
UK
0.55%
0.50%
1.19%
1.76%
0.37%
0.51%
0.43%
0.42%
US
-0.02%
0.31%
1.36%
2.04%
0.15%
0.33%
0.22%
0.16%
Sri Lanka
1M
3M
Govt. Sec. Feb 16
6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities
China
17
Interbank Feb 16
China
UK US 0%
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return
Current Prices
Commodity
Unit
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
-4.6%
-10.2%
-29.6%
-54.7%
263.6
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-7.1%
-15.1%
-36.6%
-61.8%
2017.0
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-3.3%
-6.3%
-26.5%
-54.1%
153.1
Coal
USD/Tonne
-0.2%
-5.7%
-28.9%
N.A
50.5
Copper
USc/lbs
-0.3%
4.1%
-21.6%
-52.5%
212.9
Cotton
USc/lbs
-8.3%
-5.4%
-10.4%
-71.7%
58.0
Gold
USD/t oz.
16.4%
15.8%
1.8%
-12.4%
1234.4
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
6.1%
17.4%
-7.9%
-49.3%
590.9
Sugar
USc/lbs
-4.5%
-2.5%
4.5%
-55.2%
14.6
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
-5.3%
-3.3%
-14.0%
-43.1%
4.5
WTI
USD/bbl
-8.9%
-19.0%
-32.2%
-65.2%
33.8
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
-3.5%
-19.4%
-42.5%
-67.8%
36.0
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
-2.2%
-19.5%
-53.2%
N.A
107.6
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
-17.2%
-22.7%
-40.6%
-61.5%
1.0
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
-26.8%
-23.4%
-37.4%
-57.6%
1.7
Silver
USD/t Ozs
7.9%
6.0%
-9.8%
-55.9%
14.9
120
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
EUR
CAD
Dec-15
Feb-16
Currencies Change Versus PKR in % YTD
Current Exchange Rates
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
190
Canadian Dollar
CAD
0.00%
0.00%
-3.12%
-10.64%
CAD - PKR
78.87
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
2.25%
-1.50%
EUR - PKR
116.61
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-5.21%
INR - PKR
1.7941
130
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
2.07%
55.21%
JPY - PKR
0.8692
110
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
0.68%
13.54%
GBP - PKR
158.28
90
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
-2.51%
8.09%
SGD - PKR
72.89
70
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
2.57%
21.93%
USD - PKR
104.48
18
GBP
USD
170 150
Jan-15 Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jul-15
Aug-15 Sep-15
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ. Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document. No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document. Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr. Haider Abbas 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - February 2016
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
