January 2016
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
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Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12
Funds Return History
13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 16
Markets Information
17 - 18
03
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Yield Curve
Economic Review
The new Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) set up by the State Bank of Pakistan kept the discount rate at 6.5% which surprised market participants who had taken bets on a rate cut in the wake of another sharp dip in oil prices and PKR stability. This decision was in-line with the IMF's suggestion of a cautionary forward looking monetary policy and was indicative of the SBP's hesitance to further reduce rates on the back of unpredictable movements in commodity prices. The IMF's 10th review of the Pakistani economy concluded with the approval of another $497 million tranche despite the government's inability to meet all the pre-requisites. As a result FX reserves are expected to maintain their level above $20 billion for the time being. Inflation went up to 3.3% for January 16 YoY compared to 3.2% for December 15 while on a MoM basis the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2%. Core inflation measured by NFNE (Non-food non-energy) increased to 4.3% and Core trimmed (weighted trimmed mean CPI) increased to 3.0%. On the other hand a persistent decline in the prices of perishable food items and commodities is expected to contain the bounce back in inflation during 2HFY16.
12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1W
The Government's efforts to implement energy reform and improve the power deficit could be seen in the financial close of the 1,320 MW Coal power plant in Port Qasim, ECC approval for PSO's $16 bn LNG deal with Qatar and progress on the $2.5 bn North - South gas pipeline on which work is expected to begin in July. Macroeconomic indicators continued to improve as the Current Account deficit for 1HFY16 contracted by 48.5% while Worker Remittances climbed to $9.73 billion. The World Bank projects GDP growth in 2016 at 5.5% which is reflective of the confidence that creditors are placing in the medium term outlook for Pakistan. Despite the strength in FX reserves and a sharply lower external deficit, there are headwinds during 2016 which could increase volatility in the PKR and lead to monetary tightening. These headwinds are in the form of debt repayments totaling $5.2 billion during CY16 which in the absence of further inflows from borrowing and FDI could put a serious dent in the painstakingly built up FX reserves. Fixed Income The State Bank of Pakistan decided to maintain status quo in its monetary policy statement in January on the back of rising inflation despite falling commodity prices. CPI is expected to inch up and reach an approximate level of 5% in the current fiscal year as the impact of favorable base starts to fade away. Market participants were largely expecting a cut in the discount rate as is evident by the decline in the tbills and PIB yields. In the first t-bills auction of the month, the government raised a total of PKR 235 billion against a face value of PKR 242.9 billion. 3-month and 6-month tenors fetched the highest amount from investors at a cut-off yield of 6.3038% and 6.3092% respectively. In the second t-bill auction of the month, cut-off yields of 3-month and 6-month t-bills dropped to 6.1697% and 6.1812% indicating that investors perceived a cut in the discount rate as the MPS date approached. A total of PKR 292 billion was raised in this auction against a face value of PKR 304 billion with almost PKR 165 billion being raised from 12-month t-bills alone. Only one PIB auction was held in January with a total of PKR 131 billion being raised against a face value of PKR 121 billion. 3-year and 5-year bonds received the highest bids worth PKR 71 billion and PKR 60 billion respectively. Cut off yields dropped between 25 - 52 bps over the previous auction as market participants looked to capitalize on a potential cut in the discount rate. Equities Markets Review January is typically a month of positive returns for Pakistan's equity market. This year, however, the index was affected by the global rout in equities and the subsequent capital outflows. The KSE 30 also suffered blows from market participants who expected that the State Bank of Pakistan will continue with its monetary easing stance and cut the discount rate in the monetary policy announcement due on the last day of January. The index closed at 18,179 points - down 5.72% in the month. Household goods was the best performing sector with PAEL up 6% in January. Pharmaceuticals was up 4.6% followed by Cements which was up 3.5%. Cements gained investors' interest due to rising sales, expectation of a cut in the discount rate which would favor the leveraged sector and expectation of an increase in earnings. Automobiles gained 3.24% led by HCAR's above expected corporate earnings. Support Services was the worst performing sector, down 23% in the month as investors realized gains. Banks was the worst hit among major sectors and was down almost 11% as major selling was seen in the sector to combat the effect of a possibility of a decrease in spreads. Index heavyweight HBL was the worst performer with a decline of 14.5%. Oil & Gas was down almost 7% in the month as Iran is expected to add to the global glut in oil after the uplifting of sanctions. Foreigners continued to offload their positions (-$49 million). Mutual Funds (-$17.8 million), brokers ($13.6) and Individuals (-$9 million) were also major sellers whereas Banks (+$31 million), NBFC (+$25 million) and Companies (+$24 million) were major buyers. Average volumes went up from 57.5 million shares per day in December to 59.9 million shares per day - an increase 4% month-on-month. Average traded value, however, remained unchanged t at around $48 million per day in January. The KSE 30 continues to trade at a discount to regional indices. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE ratio of the KSE 30 has gone down from 9.34x in December to 8.99x in January as the market lost more than 5% in value. India's Sensex Index has a TTM PE ratio of 18.57x whereas China's Shanghai Composite Index has a TTM PE ratio of 14.4x.
2M
6M
2Y
5Y
8Y
31-Dec-15
15Y
29-Jan-16
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS
106.0
21.0
USD/PKR
105.0 104.0
20.0
103.0 102.0
19.0 4-Jan
9-Jan
14-Jan
19-Jan 24-Jan 29-Jan
Market Rates
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0% 4-Jan 6M KIBOR
13-Jan
22-Jan
O/N Repo Rate
6M T-Bill
The new Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) set up by the State Bank of Pakistan kept the discount rate at 6.5%.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
04
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets Review The S&P 500 had its worst month since January 2009 and declined 5% in the month as the effects of the monetary policy tightening were felt. The decline was pared on the last day of the month when the index advanced 2.5% after an above expected result from Microsoft Corporation. The Dow was also down more than 5% in the month despite gaining 2.5% on the last day of the month. The Nasdaq composite declined a massive 8% in the month - its worst month in more than 4 years. Besides above expected result from Microsoft, monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan and strong manufacturing data from Chicago also had significant impact on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate unchanged as it closely monitors developments in China, Europe and oil markets. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopted a negative interest-rate strategy in order to push banks to lend aggressively amid a slowdown in the country's economy. The Nikkei Index was down a staggering 8% in the month, with equities paring losses on the last day of the month after the announcement of the new monetary policy by BOJ.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 140%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index
120%
100%
80%
60% Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.05%. Spain's CAC 40 was down almost 5% in the month whereas the German DAX slipped almost 9%. The FTSE100 in comparison had a better start to the year with the index down 2.5% in the month. Emerging Markets Review China's stocks on the last day of the month climbed 2.2% amid speculation that the global sell-offs in the month were exaggerated and the worst was over for the equity market after the People's Bank of China added liquidity into the financial system. The index lost almost 23% in January - the worst month since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Russia's market gained strength and closed up 1.3% after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy rate. Like many other markets, India's Sensex 30 also had a rough month and lost 5% due to persistent foreign selling. The last week of the month helped give a boost to the index with Power, Healthcare, Auto and IT leading gains.
Valuations of International Markets 20
16
Commodities Review Gold had the best month in almost a year as the metal rallied due to its safe haven nature. January was roiled by turmoil across global financial markets and plunging oil prices. Moreover, U.S. investors took interest in safe haven gold as indications of enervating economic growth in the U.S. became visible. Gold was up more than 5% in the month.
12
Oil had a tumultuous month with the commodity down initially in response to the lift-off of sanctions after which Iran is expected to pour to add to an already oversupplied market. WTI oil suffered the most and was down almost 12% whereas Brent was down almost 7%. This is the first month in the recent past where there was such a huge difference in the trading of these two types of oil.
4
Coal on the other hand gained 2.5% as a rebound in oil prices provided some comfort to the commodity in the short-run. Also, encouraging news from China that demand from its power generation sector may improve due to cold waves affecting the northern parts of the country, helped in boosting prices.
8
-
DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India China
P/E Multiple
The S&P 500 had its worst month since January 2009.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
05
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund generated an annualized return of 5.95% against the benchmark return of 5.28% in January 2016. The Fund outpeformed the benchmark by 0.67%. Over the last 12 months the Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 0.19% and generated a return of 6.55%. As year end placements began to mature the asset allocation of the Fund also tilted back towards T bills and cash which accounted for 39% and 44% of total assets respectively. Portfolio WAM was maintained at 30 days as another rate cut was not expected in the January Monetary Policy Review. Going forward the Fund will continue to increase allocation to T bills while looking to selectively lock in high yield placements with quality Banks & DFIs. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 55.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 1.47. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.09%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Govt Sec 39%
AA 43%
Cash 32%
AA 66%
AA+ 18%
T-Bills 16%
AA+ 18%
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills Cash Others including receivables
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 % of Total Assets 33% 52% 17% 0% 0% 0% 59% 16% 39% 7% 32% 44% 0% 1% 0%
WAM* Days 56 0 50 0
* Weighted Average Maturity
Non Compliant Investments Name of Non - Compliant Type of Investment Instrument
Pak Brunei Investment Co. Pak Oman Investment Co.
COI COI
Value of Total Value of % of Net % of Total Investment Provisioning Investment Assets Assets before Held after Provisioning Provisioning 600,000,000 600,000,000
-
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31st, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 30 Days
Open-End Money Market Fund 3,862 103.4185 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 1.00% and maximum of 1.25% of the average annual net assets Front End Load None Back End Load None Launch Date November 13, 2009 Benchmark 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'AA' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Low Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Performance
Govt Sec 16%
Placements with Banks & DFIs 52%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
600,000,000 10.56% 600,000,000 10.56%
10.39% 10.39%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LMMF 5.55% 6.11% 5.57% 5.34% 5.57% 6.55% 6.11%
Benchmark 5.80% 5.41% 5.49% 5.42% 5.72% 6.36% 5.41%
Simple Annualized FY16 - YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LMMF 5.49% 5.95% 5.44% 5.23% 5.49% 6.55% 5.95% 8.25% 10.68% 11.97%
Benchmark 5.73% 5.28% 5.45% 5.31% 5.65% 6.36% 5.28% 8.50% 10.97% 12.25%
Please note that the benchmark of the fund was changed in February 2014. Benchmark calculation of tenors which include months prior to February 2014 incorporate the old benchmark as well.
LMMF vs. Benchmark 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved. Tha Lakson Money Market Fund holds certain non-complaint investments. Before making any investment decision investors should review this document and the latest financial statements.
06
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review During January 2016 the LIF generated an annualized return of 9.16% against the benchmark return of 7.47%. The LIF outpeformed the benchmark by 1.69%. Over 7MFY16 the LIF has outperformed the average income fund by 2.34%. Asset allocation changed with T bill exposure increasing to 5%, placements with Banks and DFIs dropped to 18% while exposure to PIBs was slightly increased to 22%, the WAM of the portfolio remained steady at 564 days. Going forward the Fund will look to trim PIB exposure as yields continue to rally and look towards high quality corporate paper and MTS to maintain portfolio yield. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 15.7 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.40. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY16 would be higher by 0.17%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LIF.
Asset Allocation Other 2%
Unrated 3%
Cash 48%
Unrated 0.27%
A+ 58%
PIB 22%
Govt Sec 27%
AA 2%
Sukuk 1%
AA+ 8%
AA3%
T-Bill TFCs 6% 4%
TFCs/Sukuk Portfolio Name of the Issuer Bank Al Habib Limited IV Bank Al Falah Limited V PMCL VII Askari Bank Limited IV K-Electric AZM Sukuk III
Issue Date 30-Jun-11 20-Feb-13 18-Apr-12 23-Dec-11 24-Feb-14
Rating % of Total Assets AA 0.51% AA1.53% AA0.15% AA1.31% AA 0.97%
Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills TFCs Sukuks MTS Cash Others including receivables
LIF 9.27% 9.56% 8.20% 5.95% 8.29% 10.74% 9.56%
Benchmark 7.02% 7.74% 6.63% 5.00% 6.67% 9.90% 7.74%
Simple annualized FY16 - YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LIF 9.27% 9.16% 7.93% 5.82% 8.12% 10.74% 9.16% 11.61% 13.35% 14.48%
Benchmark 6.93% 7.47% 6.46% 4.91% 6.56% 9.90% 7.47% 12.53% 13.18% 12.05%
LIF vs. Benchmark 122 120 118 114
Nov-15
Dec-15
27% 32% 10% 4% 1% 0% 24% 1%
% of Total Assets 38% 19% 0% 4% 1% 0% 36% 3%
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31st, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Morningstar FY16 - YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
116
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Income Fund 4,253 106.3575 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'A+' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Performance
Credit Split
Placements with Banks/ DFIs 18%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Nil. Nil. 564 Days
Jan-16 18% 22% 5% 4% 1% 0% 48% 3%
WAM* Days 95 2046 0 1904 1120 0 0
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
07
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review LEF started the New Year on a high note, generating a MTD return of -3.74% vs. -15.73% of the benchmark. The whopping outperformance was due to the timely realization of gains in key sectors. The fund reduced overall exposure to 85% from previous month by 3%, trimming down exposures across the board. With the advent of result announcements, short term upward movement in key sectors allowed the exit. In light of the upcoming MPS, an above par daily accrual rate was negotiated, where cash was parked at a premium to the secondary T-Bill yields. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 19.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 0.71. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LEF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings
Fund Facts
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Equity Fund 2,811 100.4210 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 2.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Performance
LEF
KSE-30
-3.74% -2.36% 0.07% -3.70% -6.51% -8.24% -2.36% 83.22% 138.38% 189.85%
-15.73% -5.72% -6.32% -10.96% -18.25% -18.45% -5.72% 29.44% 49.39% 90.11%
Asset Allocation 6.74% 6.04% 5.47% 5.12% 4.89% 3.68% 3.60% 3.21% 3.13% 3.01%
Sectorwise Exposure
Dec-15
Jan-16
Chemicals Const. & Mat. Oil & Gas Electricity Comm Banks Others
15.25% 25.24% 12.98% 6.74% 12.96% 14.55%
14.90% 24.82% 11.60% 6.93% 12.33% 14.76%
Others 1%
Cash 11%
Equity 88%
Sectorwise Exposure
*Returns based on last working day NAV Others
Chemicals
LEF vs. Benchmark
Commercial Banks
Const. & Mat.
200 150 100
Jan-16 85% 0% 14% 0%
LEF
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
1M Return -4.6% -4.8% -1.5% -4.9% -5.5% -5.1%
P/E 9.0 18.6 17.9 10.0 15.0 17.4
Div. Yield 6.4% 1.5% 3.1% 3.9% 2.7% 2.3%
KSE-100
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
0
Sep-15
50
Mar-15
Dec-15 88% 0% 11% 1%
Jan-15
Nov-15 81% 0% 18% 1%
Dec-14
Equities T-Bills Cash Others Including Receivable
300 250
Electricity Oil & Gas
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets)
FY16 - YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Feb-15
Engro Corporation Limited Pioneer Cement Limited DG Khan Cement Limited Lucky Cement Limited Engro Fertilizer Limited United Bank Limited MCB Bank Limited Cherat Cement Limited Fauji Cement Limited Oil & Gas Development Co
KSE-30
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
08
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review During the month of January 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund generated an absolute return of 0.77% against the benchmark return of -0.07%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 5.98% over 7MFY16. With the outlook for global growth still depressed, the Fund will continue to avoid commodity exposure. Allocation has been taken in T bills (42%) and PIBs (33%), while Cash (24%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.3 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.75. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAGCF for FY16 would be higher by 0.06%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAGCF.
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF) Weight as of Jan-16 15.26 8.40 8.15 8.02 6.89 6.56 6.55 6.40 6.31 6.20 6.05 3.67 3.66 2.64 2.63 2.62
Cash 24% T bills 43% PIBs 6%
PIBs 33%
Commodities Exposure
Placements with Banks & DFIs T bills PIBs Global Commodities Cash
Benchmark*
LAAGCF
FY16-YTD January-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
4.00% 0.77% 0.97% 0.83% 3.14% 6.39% 0.77% 16.16% NA 29.22%
-1.98% -0.07% -0.49% -1.30% -0.15% -0.01% -0.07% 2.00% NA 17.47%
* The new Benchmark is effective from September 10, 2013.
LAAGCF vs. Benchmark
Benchmark
Oct-15
Dec-15
Apr-15
Aug-15
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Oct-13
Feb-14
103 101 99
Aug-13
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 42% 33% 33% 33% 0% 0% 0% 37% 24% 24%
111 109 107 105
Dec-13
Soybeans 8.40%
May-13
Corn 8.15%
119 117 115 113
Jan-13
Sugar 8.02%
Mar-13
Jan-16 32.46% 29.62% 18.93% 19.00%
125 123 121
Jun-12
Gold 15.26%
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Fund Performance
RBOB 6.89%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 191 108.1051 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Sep-12
Sectorwise Exposure as of Agriculture Energy Precious Metals Base Metals
Asset Allocation
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Nov-12
Commodity Gold Soybeans Corn Sugar #11 RBOB Gasoline Brent Crude Aluminium Zinc Heating Oil Light Crude Copper - Grade A Silver Natural Gas Wheat (Kansas Wheat) Wheat Wheat-Mineapolis Wht
Fund Facts
LAAGCF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
09
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review During the month of January 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund generated an absolute return of -0.78% against the benchmark return of -1.81%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 3.59% over 7MFY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (15%), PIBs (49%) and Developed Market Equities (25%). Exposure in equities has been focused on US indices which offer a superior risk/return profile to other Developed Markets. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 2.8 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 1.11. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.04%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities Jan-16 % of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 11.00% Microsoft Corp 8.92% Amazon.com Inc 5.58% Alphabet Inc 5.20% Facebook Inc 5.16% Alphabet Inc 4.49% Intel Corp 2.97% Comcast Corp 2.76% Cisco Systems Inc 2.45% Gilead Sciences Inc 2.42%
QQQ ETF
% of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 3.27% Microsoft Corp 2.47% Exxon Mobil Corp 1.81% General Electric Co 1.64% Johnson & Johnson 1.58% Amazon.com Inc 1.45% Wells Fargo & Co 1.41% Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.38% JPMorgan Chase & Co 1.35% Facebook Inc 1.32% Vanguard S&P 500
Asset Allocation Cash 11%
T-Bills 15%
DM Equities 25%
PIBs 49%
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 296 118.2175 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 15% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 1.25% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAADMF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of MSCI World Index and 6-month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Fund Performance FY16-YTD January-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Asset Allocation
LAADMF Benchmark 2.84% -0.78% -0.91% -1.13% 2.00% 7.02% -0.78% 25.3% NA 42.91%
-0.75% -1.81% -2.45% -2.44% -1.63% 2.19% -1.81% 21.65% NA 47.03%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark
Instruments
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 18% 18% 15% 48% 48% 49% 27% 27% 25% 7% 7% 11%
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
140 136 132 128 124 120 116 112 108
Country United States China United Kingdom Singapore Netherlands
Weight 95.58% 1.65% 0.83% 0.75% 0.52%
Sectors United States Ireland United Kingdom Switzerland Singapore
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Jan-15
May-15
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jan-14
Benchmark
May-14
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-13
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Nov-12
Jun-12
Weight 97.48% 1.26% 0.40% 0.39% 0.21%
Mar-13
100
Vanguard S&P 500 (As of Jan-16)
QQQ ETF (As of Jan-16)
Aug-12
104
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
10
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
PowerShares QQQ ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type QQQ US Equity DES and click on Allocations
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type VUSD LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
11
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review During the month of January 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.53% against the benchmark return of -1.29%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 6.67% over 7MFY16. With Chinese, Brazilian and Indian equities continuing to face headwinds the Fund will avoid exposure in Emerging Markets. Allocation has been taken in T bills (52%) and PIBs (24%), while Cash (24%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of January 31st, 2016 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 1.10. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.03%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAEMF.
Emerging Market Equities
As of Jan-16
Security
% of Assets
3.26% 3.20% 2.98% 2.06% 1.58% 1.49% 1.18% 1.03% 1.00% 0.96%
Cash 24% T-Bills 52%
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 48% 53% 52% 25% 25% 24% 0% 0% 0% 28% 23% 24%
120 116 112 108
Nil. Nil.
Oct-15
Dec-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Feb-14
Benchmark
May-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
May-13
100
Jan-13
Weight 14.14% 8.50% 7.14% 6.23% 5.98%
Mar-13
104
Sectors Banks Semiconductors Telecommunications Oil&Gas Internet
Disclosures Leverage as on January 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
-4.02% -1.29% -1.79% -2.52% -2.31% -1.94% -1.29% 6.80% NA 28.18%
124
Nov-12
Weight 19.53% 15.62% 12.01% 8.49% 6.28%
2.65% 0.53% 0.58% 0.49% 2.15% 4.42% 0.53% 12.97% NA 28.44%
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
EEM Composition (As of Jan-16) Country China South Korea Taiwan India South Africa
LAAEMF Benchmark
128
Jun-12
Placements with Banks (TDRs) T-Bills PIBs Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
Fund Performance FY16-YTD January-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
PIBs 24%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 101 112.3889 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is Benchmark calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (22.04.2015)
Sep-12
Samsung Electronics Co Taiwan Semiconductor Tencent Holdings Ltd China Mobile Ltd China Construction Bank Naspers Ltd Industrial & Commercia Alibaba Group Holding L Hon Hai Precision Indus Bank of China Ltd
Asset Allocation
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (29.1.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
12
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Funds Return History The periodic returns for the funds have been presented below as per SECP's SCD Circular No. 16 dated July 03, 2014. The returns presented below are: Yearly returns for the last five fiscal years and Absolute returns for every fiscal year since inception The returns have been annualized for money market and income schemes where the performance evaluation is less than one year.
Last 3 and 5 Fiscal Years Lakson Money Market Fund (LMMF) Fund Benchmark
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15
11.69% 11.76%
11.19% 11.31%
8.76% 9.14%
7.90% 8.50%
8.57% 8.45%
11.50% 10.82%
11.57% 8.86%
9.21% 9.17%
8.38% 8.31%
14.17% 12.64%
20.44% 28.53%
9.74% 10.45%
40.02% 52.20%
32.15% 25.96%
23.93% 5.67%
6.42% 10.63%
10.52% 13.45%
9.64% 12.94%
7.76% 5.34%
5.85% 7.25%
3.44% 7.89%
4.24% 7.47%
8.86% -1.02%
6.23% 9.82%
5.46% 8.50%
6.40% 10.01%
4.96% 3.36%
Lakson Income Fund (LIF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Equity Fund (LEF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund (LAADMF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund (LAAGCF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund (LAAEMF) Fund Benchmark
Since Inception Absolute Returns LMMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
FY'10 6.77% 6.66%
FY'11 19.25% 19.21%
FY'12 32.63% 32.73%
FY'13 44.25% 44.86%
FY'14 55.65% 57.17%
FY'15 68.98% 70.45%
LIF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
7.16% 4.59%
19.49% 15.90%
33.35% 26.20%
45.63% 37.77%
57.84% 49.22%
80.20% 68.08%
LEF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
-0.66% 7.32%
19.65% 37.94%
31.30% 52.35%
83.84% 107.12%
142.95% 160.89%
201.91% 200.87%
LAADMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.42% 10.63%
17.62% 25.51%
28.95% 41.75%
38.96% 49.33%
LAAGCF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
5.85% 7.25%
9.49% 15.71%
14.13% 24.36%
24.25% 23.09%
LAAEMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.23% 9.82%
12.03% 19.15%
19.20% 31.08%
25.11% 35.49%
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
13
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of February 01, 2016
Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Financial Sector Opportunity Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB DCF Income Fund NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Savings Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Financial Sector Bond Fund Islamic Income Funds ABL Islamic Income Fund Al Ameen Islamic Sovereign Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Income Fund Askari Islamic Income Fund Atlas Islamic Income Fund Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund JS Islamic Government Securities Fund MCB Islamic Income Fund Meezan Islamic Income Fund Meezan Sovereign Fund NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund
Money Market Funds
ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Money Market Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund Atlas Sovereign Liquid Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund PIML Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund UBL Money Market Fund Islamic Money Market Funds Al Ameen Islamic Cash Fund HBL Islamic Money Market Fund Meezan Cash Fund
30 Days 8.17 8.70 6.20 6.53 7.44 3.76 4.01 9.40 5.94 6.10 6.74 7.87 6.40 5.66 6.60 12.40 9.42
90 Days 5.55 5.29 3.29 4.41 4.17 3.97 5.34 5.83 4.34 5.92 6.58 6.52 5.92 5.01 3.86 6.43 7.36
5.56 (0.30) 6.42 4.31 3.09 9.21 (2.03) 0.87 4.39 1.87 5.29 3.93
Annualized Returns (%) 180 Days 7.11 7.94 6.99 7.73 6.85 6.32 4.85 8.15 6.62 6.33 7.10 7.35 6.09 5.65 6.75 7.71 6.48
270 Days 6.55 7.28 5.09 6.88 5.63 6.88 5.10 8.79 6.17 7.19 7.33 8.74 6.51 5.35 6.18 6.29 6.13
365 Days 9.27 8.4 7.04 8.43 7.25 8.11 6.42 10.87 7.64 8.12 9.02 9.52 7.07 7.32 7.73 8.01 7.88
5.65 2.33 4.05 5.04 4.27 7.38 2.26 5.00 6.25 6.66 5.52 2.69
5.74 3.18 4.28 5.55 4.63 5.33 2.17 4.91 6.43 5.18 5.32 2.78
6.19 4.00 4.59 5.29 5.21 5.81 3.23 5.27 6.60 5.67 5.89 2.46
6.76 4.84 5.23 5.62 5.91 6.16 4.28 5.97 6.89 6.28 6.15 2.98
6.00 5.45 5.27 5.49 5.01 5.72 5.37 4.41 5.66 5.12 4.16 5.47 5.95 5.73 5.96 6.51 5.73 5.80 6.52 5.32 5.11
5.43 5.20 5.09 5.26 4.97 5.60 5.36 3.99 5.43 4.99 4.88 5.36 5.24 5.53 5.53 5.79 5.69 5.66 6.44 5.05 5.07
5.77 5.50 5.40 5.59 5.44 6.08 5.80 4.69 5.61 5.44 5.30 5.77 5.48 5.92 5.59 5.90 5.90 6.10 6.34 5.38 5.35
7.28 5.95 6.20 6.36 6.75 6.66 7.03 5.08 6.19 5.88 6.55 6.91 6.01 6.68 5.91 6.87 6.95 8.43 6.52 6.08 5.47
7.51 6.5 6.6 6.78 6.96 6.97 6.99 5.81 6.71 6.36 6.86 7.22 6.58 7.06 6.33 7.25 7.19 8.55 7.73 6.53 6.05
4.44 4.57 4.38
4.40 4.51 4.31
4.57 4.69 4.47
4.53 4.62 4.96
5.02 5.02 5.65
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of February 01, 2016 Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund Islamic Aggressive Income Funds Al Ameen Islamic Aggressive Income Fund NAFA Islamic Aggressive Income Fund Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Capital Mutual Fund First Habib Stock Fund JS Growth Fund JS Large Cap Fund JS Value Fund Lakson Equity Fund MCB Pakistan Stock Market Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust PICIC Energy Fund PICIC Stock Fund PIML Value Equity Fund United Stock Advantage Fund Islamic Equity Funds ABL Islamic Stock Fund Al Ameen Shariah Stock Fund Al Meezan Mutual Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Stock Fund HBL Islamic Stock Fund JS Islamic Fund Meezan Islamic Fund PIML Islamic Equity Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 18.92 13.07 9.68 16.04 7.08 9.64 9.20
90 Days 8.67 6.82 6.68 8.42 3.69 4.13 6.32
180 Days 9.25 8.29 8.82 11.59 8.32 8.44 7.49
270 Days 4.60 6.05 5.78 7.86 7.19 6.86 6.66
365 Days 7.81 9.08 8.61 9.52 8.7 9.45 9.25
7.98 8.65
6.43 7.28
6.58 7.73
6.77 8.25
6.84 8.17
(3.24) (6.47) (0.75) (5.12) (2.26) (3.04) (2.67) (0.47) (0.26) 0.36 (2.15) (2.89) (1.92) (0.95) (5.45) (4.68) (0.62) (1.19)
(6.57) (11.19) 0.15 (9.52) (5.25) (7.64) (6.58) (1.96) (1.99) 0.92 (3.70) (5.26) (4.76) (1.59) (8.65) (8.09) (4.53) 0.27
(7.51) (13.28) (0.85) (14.91) (11.47) (11.22) (11.70) (5.00) N/A (0.57) (6.51) (8.98) (7.87) (4.09) (13.48) (9.43) (6.35) 0.59
(3.15) 19.89 5.47 (12.39) (8.07) (6.37) (7.97) (1.39) (0.61) 3.93 (2.65) (3.46) (2.68) 1.91 (13.91) (3.64) 0.52 6.35
-1.44 4.99 9.64 -9.69 -8.25 -8.03 -8.89 -7.05 -3.09 0.11 -8.08 -0.9 -0.97 -4.48 -8.04 -7.58 N/A 3.24
(2.77) (0.51) (2.63) 0.75 (1.40) 1.09 (2.58) 0.21
(6.70) (0.70) (4.21) 3.19 (5.13) (0.79) (3.31) (3.18)
(8.54) (2.79) (5.69) 3.00 (8.99) (5.54) (4.60) (3.78)
(4.18) 4.29 (0.32) 9.98 (6.03) 1.51 2.08 2.31
0.03 1.3 -0.08 15.84 -7.55 1.51 1.84 6.89
(3.44) (2.39) (0.80) (1.55) 1.05
(7.29) (4.47) (3.10) (3.52) 0.65
0.30 (5.21) (4.81) (5.33) 0.93
8.47 (1.99) (1.31) (1.90) 3.29
10.25 -3.3 0.88 0.26 0.5
(1.98) (1.41)
(5.00) (2.13)
(7.61) (2.46)
(4.09) 2.27
-7.42 3.43
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund HBL Multi Asset Fund NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund Unit Trust of Pakistan Islamic Balanced Funds First Habib Islamic Balanced Fund Meezan Balanced Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of February 01, 2016 Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund Askari Asset Allocation Fund Faysal Asset Allocation Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund MCB Pakistan Asset Allocation Fund MCB Pakistan Frequent Payout Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund UBL Asset Allocation Fund Islamic Asset Allocation Funds Al Ameen Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund NAFA Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pakistan Int'l Element Islamic Asset Allocation Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 0.28 (6.59) (4.72) (1.07) 0.49 0.73 (0.32) 0.50 (0.53) (1.49) (0.13)
90 Days 0.90 (9.96) (7.59) (1.14) 0.49 0.82 (1.63) N/A (2.75) (3.77) (0.15)
180 Days 0.94 (13.59) (9.76) 1.98 2.14 3.12 (1.73) N/A (4.64) (3.72) 1.17
270 Days 7.37 (10.33) (2.73) 2.76 2.46 3.57 (0.41) N/A 0.18 2.12 2.50
365 Days 14.36 -12.14 -3.71 7.03 4.46 6.46 2.09 N/A 2.24 2.26 7.87
(0.73) (1.67) (0.58) (0.18) 1.89
0.16 (5.70) (1.67) (2.88) 0.65
0.64 (8.92) (1.97) (0.99) (4.24)
4.57 (8.51) 4.26 5.88 (0.78)
6.6 -8.6 7.88 7.11 1.13
0.29 (0.88)
0.90 (0.87)
1.83 (2.93)
3.32 (0.20)
4.31 3.11
(0.33) (1.02)
(1.68) (4.05)
(2.64) (6.45)
0.37 (2.40)
3.23 0.01
Capital Protected Funds HBL Mustahekum Sarmaya Fund 1 Pakistan Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund
Islamic Capital Protected Funds NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund I NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund II
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
16
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
Total Return in USD and %
Markets
Index
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
World
MSCI All Country World Index
-6.1%
-8.8%
-8.6%
11.8%
-6.1%
-8.8%
-8.6%
11.8%
Developed
MSCI World Index
-6.1%
-8.4%
-6.9%
19.4%
-6.1%
-8.4%
-6.9%
19.4%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
-6.5%
-12.4%
-22.8%
-33.7%
-6.5%
-12.4%
-22.8%
-33.7%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
-6.7%
-10.9%
-11.6%
-6.0%
-6.7%
-10.9%
-11.6%
-6.0%
China
CSI 300
-21.0%
-16.6%
-14.2%
-4.2%
-21.0%
-16.6%
-14.2%
-4.2%
Dubai
DFM
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
157.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
157.0%
India
BSE Sensex 30
-4.8%
-6.7%
-14.8%
35.7%
-4.8%
-6.7%
-14.8%
35.7%
Japan
Nikkei 225
-8.0%
-8.2%
-0.9%
71.1%
-8.0%
-8.2%
-0.9%
71.1%
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-1.5%
0.1%
-6.4%
9.7%
-1.5%
0.1%
-6.4%
9.7%
Pakistan
KSE 100
-4.6%
-8.6%
-9.1%
153.2%
-4.6%
-8.6%
-9.1%
153.2% -11.9%
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
-8.0%
-10.0%
-11.7%
-11.9%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-11.7%
UK
FTSE 100
-2.5%
-4.4%
-9.9%
3.8%
-2.5%
-4.4%
-9.9%
3.8%
US
DJIA
-5.5%
-6.8%
-4.1%
38.5%
-5.5%
-6.8%
-4.1%
38.5%
US
S&P 500
-5.1%
-6.7%
-2.7%
50.9%
-5.1%
-6.7%
-2.7%
50.9%
US
NASDAQ 100
-6.8%
-8.0%
3.2%
87.5%
-6.8%
-8.0%
3.2%
87.5%
Germany
DAX Index
-8.8%
-9.7%
-8.4%
38.4%
-8.8%
-9.7%
-8.4%
38.4%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
-1.4%
-5.2%
-12.6%
-5.4%
-1.4%
-5.2%
-12.6%
-5.4%
France
CAC - 40
-4.7%
-9.8%
-4.1%
10.3%
-4.7%
-9.8%
-4.1%
10.3%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
-6.8%
-11.9%
-13.9%
-39.3%
-6.8%
-11.9%
-13.9%
-39.3%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
-2.5%
-5.8%
-1.9%
-7.6%
-2.5%
-5.8%
-1.9%
-7.6%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
-3.1%
-5.5%
-13.7%
-11.6%
-3.1%
-5.5%
-13.7%
-11.6%
475.5%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors Automobile and Parts
12.6%
7.5%
20.8%
475.5%
12.6%
7.5%
20.8%
Banks
-7.9%
-12.7%
-23.6%
75.0%
-7.9%
-12.7%
-23.6%
75.0%
-75.2%
-76.9%
-75.8%
-47.2%
-75.2%
-76.9%
-75.8%
-47.2%
Chemicals Construction and Materials
-2.2%
-2.9%
2.7%
732.1%
-2.2%
-2.9%
2.7%
732.1%
Electricity
-3.7%
-6.9%
-0.7%
176.9%
-3.7%
-6.9%
-0.7%
176.9%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
-11.2%
-16.8%
-42.8%
-23.9%
-11.2%
-16.8%
-42.8%
-23.9%
Food Producers
-6.1%
-16.0%
-21.0%
143.6%
-6.1%
-16.0%
-21.0%
143.6%
Non Life Insurance
-2.8%
-4.5%
-7.2%
159.9%
-2.8%
-4.5%
-7.2%
159.9%
Oil and Gas
-6.8%
-14.1%
-36.7%
-16.3%
-6.8%
-14.1%
-36.7%
-16.3%
Personal Goods
2.0%
-4.6%
-13.2%
151.3%
2.0%
-4.6%
-13.2%
151.3%
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
1M
3M
6M
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates
12M
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
China
SHIBOR
3.17%
3.10%
3.12%
3.27%
4.43%
3.23%
4.11%
4.45%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.65%
1.06%
1.27%
1.55%
1.18%
0.93%
0.88%
0.92%
India
MIBOR
7.68%
7.80%
NA
NA
Japan
TIBOR
0.13%
0.17%
0.26%
0.28%
0.34%
0.26%
0.26%
0.29%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.38%
3.79%
3.87%
3.95%
3.46%
3.81%
3.83%
3.64%
Pakistan
KIBOR
6.47%
6.34%
6.35%
6.64%
9.73%
6.97%
8.18%
9.13%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
7.59%
7.90%
8.23%
8.69%
10.24%
7.20%
7.09%
8.15%
UK
LIBOR
0.51%
0.59%
0.73%
1.00%
0.77%
0.75%
0.71%
0.67%
US
SIBOR
0.43%
0.61%
0.86%
1.14%
0.47%
0.51%
0.41%
0.37%
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR
8.00% 7.75%
Interbank Jan-15
7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 1W
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
China
2.19%
2.38%
3.10%
3.27%
3.04%
2.23%
2.79%
3.28%
India
India
8.31%
8.31%
7.63%
7.54%
8.37%
8.40%
8.36%
8.68%
Japan
Japan
-0.02%
-0.10%
0.07%
0.36%
0.04%
-0.06%
-0.03%
0.00%
Malaysia
Malaysia
3.14%
3.18%
3.86%
4.15%
3.12%
3.18%
3.29%
3.20%
Pakistan
6.50%
6.55%
8.23%
9.26%
9.64%
6.87%
8.02%
9.00%
UK
0.55%
0.50%
1.19%
1.76%
0.37%
0.51%
0.43%
0.42%
US
-0.02%
0.31%
1.36%
2.04%
0.15%
0.33%
0.22%
0.16%
6M
1Y
2Y
China
Pakistan Sri Lanka UK US 0%
17
3M
12M Yields of Government Securities
3M
Sri Lanka
1M
Govt. Sec. Jan 15
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return Commodity
Unit
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
Current Prices 5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
-3.9%
-15.6%
-26.1%
-52.6%
265.4
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-5.2%
-21.1%
-31.2%
-59.6%
2058.4
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-1.7%
-11.6%
-23.4%
-52.8%
155.7
Coal
USD/Tonne
-3.6%
-8.0%
-22.7%
N.A
48.8
Copper
USc/lbs
-3.2%
-10.8%
-17.1%
-53.6%
206.7
Cotton
USc/lbs
-3.4%
-3.5%
3.0%
-63.7%
61.1
Gold
USD/t oz.
5.3%
-2.2%
-12.7%
-16.3%
1116.4
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
Sugar
USc/lbs
1.7%
8.7%
-4.3%
-54.9%
566.4
-13.8%
-9.5%
-11.2%
-61.3%
13.1
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
2.0%
-8.2%
-4.7%
-43.0%
4.8
WTI
USD/bbl
-9.2%
-27.8%
-30.3%
-63.5%
33.6
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
-6.8%
-29.9%
-34.4%
-65.6%
34.7
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
-4.1%
-29.6%
-37.4%
N.A
105.5
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
-12.9%
-21.5%
-22.1%
-55.7%
1.1
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
-1.7%
-1.0%
-14.6%
-48.0%
2.3
Silver
USD/t Ozs
3.2%
-8.5%
-17.2%
-49.4%
14.2
120
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Currencies Change Versus PKR in %
Current Exchange Rates
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
0.00%
0.00%
-0.71%
-7.86%
CAD - PKR
190
Canadian Dollar
CAD
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
2.20%
-0.61%
EUR - PKR
116.61
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-3.89%
INR - PKR
1.7941
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
1.03%
55.21%
JPY - PKR
0.8692
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
4.01%
15.37%
GBP - PKR
158.28
110
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
-2.36%
8.82%
SGD - PKR
72.89
90
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
3.36%
21.93%
USD - PKR
104.48
70 Jan-15
18
78.87
170
GBP
EUR
CAD
USD
150 130
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
Jan-16
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ. Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document. No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document. Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr. Haider Abbas 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - January 2016
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
