June 2013
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
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Our investors' interests always come first. We believe that if we serve our clients well, our own success will follow. Integrity and honesty are at the heart of our business. We expect our people to maintain high ethical standards. Our commitment to our clients, integrity, professional excellence, entrepreneurial spirit and teamwork will set us apart. Our firm shares bonuses with all employees - not just top management, but also those who perform standard administrative and clerical duties. Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders. Profitability is critical to achieving superior returns, building our capital, and attracting and keeping the best people. Our business is highly competitive and we will aggressively seek to expand our client relationships. However, we are always fair competitors and never denigrate other firms.
Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12 - 13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 15
Markets Information
16 - 17
03
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Economic Review Pakistan's headline inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index ("CPI") for FY13 clocked in at 7.4%, declining by 365 bps on YoY basis. It was Pakistan's first year of singledigit inflation after FY07, falling well below the government's target of 9.5%. The CPI index for the month of June '13 increased by 5.9% YoY, beating the average consensus estimates of 7.0%. On MoM basis, the CPI index edged up by 0.7% only. Going forward inflation is expected to go up due to the inflationary measures announced in the budget and expected higher Rupee depreciation in FY14. State Bank of Pakistan ("SBP") continued its monetary easing and cut the discount rate by 50 bps in its monetary policy announcement bringing the discount rate down to 9.0%. The SBP acknowledged that the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and external account still persist, but the motivation to cut the policy rate came in from positive change in sentiments post May '13 elections and widened real interest rate at current headline CPI levels. Pakistan also held staff level meetings with IMF and agreed on a USD 5.3 billion Extended Fund Facility that will be disbursed over a period of 36 months subject to the final approval from IMF Executive Board. The current account posted a deficit of USD 346 million in May '13, taking the cumulative deficit for the 11MFY13 to USD 1,952 million compared to a deficit of USD 3,920 million in the 11MFY12. The current account deficit declined by 50% YoY mainly due to a 12% decline in trade deficit and 5.7% better remittances. During FY13, the foreign exchange reserves of the country declined by USD 4.28 billion owing to a weak external account position coupled with IMF repayments of USD ~2.70 billion. The total foreign exchange reserves of the country stood at USD 11.01 billion, while the reserves held by SBP stood at USD 6.01 billion. The Pak Rupee depreciated by 5.4% against the green-back during FY13 and USD/PKR ended the year at 99.66. Fixed Income Market The SBP continued its current cycle of monetary easing during the month of June with a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate. The SBP decided to place a higher weight to declining inflation and low private sector credit relative to risks to the balance of payments position. The GoP raised PKR 374 billion through two T-Bill auctions against a maturity of PKR 219 billion. Market participants regained their enthusiasm for T-Bills as the bid-tocover ratio for these two auctions came in at 1.40x (vs. 1.30x in May and 0.65x in April) with 68% of total bids were made in the 12-month tenor. The cut-off yields of the 3, 6 and 12-month T-Bills came down by 41, 42, and 41 bps respectively from the cut-offs of the last auction in May '13. Active participation in the PIB auction was also witnessed in June as investors placed bids of PKR 50 billion against the auction target of PKR 25 billion and maturity of PKR 29 billion. Compared to the May-auction, cut-off yields on the 3, 5 and 10year bonds fell by 39bps, 29bps and 5bps respectively. M2 growth during FY13 came in at 17.21% compared to 14.14% in FY12, mainly driven by a surge in government borrowing for budgetary support that stood at PKR 1,591 billion compared to PKR 1,296 billion in FY12. As a result of a 50bps cut in discount rate the 6-month KIBOR declined by 49bps since May-end to 9.09% while the 12-month KIBOR declined by 45bps to 9.41%. Equity Market Review After posting a massive return of 15% during May '13, the local equity market took a breather in the month of June '13, declining by 4% during the month. The KSE-100 index posted a return of 52% during FY13 which is its highest return in the past 9 fiscal years. Regionally, the Pakistani market has outperformed major markets such as China and India in FY13. Foreign investors remained optimistic on the local market in the post-election environment and the FIPI inflow for June came in at USD 42 million compared to USD 271 million in May. In terms of sector-wise performance in June, cements led the way, followed by selected banks and energy scrips, while the chemicals and auto sectors trailed the market due to expectations of weak fundamentals in the months ahead. Participation in the equity markets remained largely unchanged since May, with average daily volumes of the KSE-100 Index scrips posting a marginal decrease of 2% MoM. Going forward, the market's performance would be dictated by the upcoming result season and the actions taken by the Government as a result of the agreement with the IMF.
Yield Curve
13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 1W
2M
6M
2Y
31-May-13
5Y
8Y
15Y
30-Jun-13
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR
100.0 99.8
12.0 11.8
99.5
11.5
99.3 99.0
11.3
98.8
11.0
98.5
10.8
98.3 98.0
10.5 1-Jun
8-Jun
15-Jun
22-Jun
29-Jun
Market Rates 12.8% 11.8% 10.8% 9.8% 8.8% 7.8% 6.8% 3-Jun
12-Jun
6M KIBOR
O/N Repo Rate
21-Jun 6M T-Bill
During FY13, the foreign exchange reserves of the country declined by USD 4.28 billion owing to a weak external account position coupled with IMF repayments of USD ~2.70 billion.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
04
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets
MSCI World Index posted a decline of 2.61% in June '13. After increasing for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2009, US equities ran into stiff headwinds in June, the last month of the second quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke unnerved markets when he commented that the Fed might scale back its monthly asset purchases later this year, possibly ending them in mid-2014. The program has helped keep interest rates low and sustain the momentum propelling stocks. In addition, first-quarter US economic growth was revised downward from earlier estimates, which also offered resistance to advancing share prices. The Commerce Department issued its final assessment of first-quarter growth, revising it downward to an annual rate of 1.8% from 2.4% previously. Consumer spending rose 0.3% in May as personal income increased 0.5%, and the savings rate went up to 3.2% the same month, the highest level since December 2012. US consumers have been benefiting from low inflation, which remains within the Fed's comfort range. The European region endured a significant sell-off in June. Every stock market in the region declined. Recent data suggest that the region remains mired in a protracted recession. The Eurozone economy has posted six consecutive quarters of lower economic growth, and the ECB forecasts that GDP growth will likely be under pressure for the rest of the year. The bloc remains challenged to generate economic growth due to austerity measures and record unemployment, which topped 12% in May. The MSCI Europe Index posted a decline of 5.3%. The Bank of Japan, at the direction of Prime Minister Abe, is moving aggressively to bolster the Japanese economy, but the central bank declined to announce additional stimulus at its mid-June meeting.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined by 6.8% during June '13. Emerging markets stocks slumped in June after the Federal Reserve clarified its plans to begin winding down the highly accommodative monetary policies that have fueled gains in the developing world for the past few years. The Fed's exit plans added to worries about slowing growth across the emerging world and instability in major markets like Brazil and Turkey, where big street protests erupted. The Fed's remarks contributed to steep currency declines in many emerging markets, with currencies in India, Brazil, and Turkey hitting multiyear or record lows against the US Dollar. Stocks in China slumped as short-term lending rates climbed to record highs in June, raising worries that a cash crunch would weaken an already slowing economy. Indian stocks retreated amid heavy selling by foreign investors, which pushed its currency, the rupee, to a record low. The weak currency has reduced the odds of further interest rate cuts by India's central bank, which left its benchmark rate unchanged in June after cutting it three times this year. Brazil's market fared the worst, slumping more than 12%, as mass protests against corruption, the eroding popularity of its president, and a sharply weaker currency took their toll. Analysts believe that Brazil's weaker currency will lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, which in turn will damage growth and consumer sentiment and possibly cause higher unemployment.
Commodities
The DBC Commodity Index declined by 4.5% during June '13 as some of the major commodities declined during the month. Energy edged higher on supply concerns, while food prices declined on larger supply prospects, and the metals prices continued to drop. Crude oil prices rose 0.4% in June and averaged USD 99.7/bbl and reached USD 106/bbl in early July on OPEC supply outages, geopolitical tensions, and falling US stocks. The spread between WTI and Brent continued to narrow, and in early July collapsed to USD 2/bbl. Natural gas prices in the US fell by 5.3% in June on strong injections into storage. Demand has been sluggish due to a relatively mild start to summer, and lower coal-to-gas displacement. Precious Metals was the worst performing sector this month. Gold and Silver were among the hardest hit commodities from the Fed's statements on quantitative easing. Industrial Metals prices dropped in June, down for a 4th straight month on concerns about slowing growth in China and expectations of QE tapering. Stocks increased for most metals as supply gains continue to exceed demand, with the exception of lead and zinc where inventories fell and prices edged higher. The warm weather hurt the Agriculture sector. The Grains dropped due to adequately moist soil and larger-than-expected crop yields. Unlike the grains, the Softs rose during the month. Cotton had the best performance for the first half of 2013, driven by stockpiling from China and merchant concern over U.S. supply tightness.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 140%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index
120%
100%
80% Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12
Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13
Valuations of International Markets
20 16 12 8 4 -
DM
US
UK Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India China
P/E Multiple
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke unnerved markets when he commented that the Fed might scale back its monthly asset purchases later this year, possibly ending them in mid-2014.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
05
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund ("LMMF") yielded an annualized return of 7.84% in May '13 compared The Lakson Money Market Fund ("LMMF") yielded an annualized return of 8.10% in June '13 compared to the Benchmark (average return of all money market funds) return of 8.97% p.a. The LMMF underperformed the average money market fund by 87bps. The yield since inception (13th November 2009) of the LMMF stood at 10.58% p.a. compared to a 10.69% p.a. return for the average money market fund. During the month, the LMMF increased exposure in bank deposits to 38% as the banks offered better rates on deposits due to the June end factor. Rates on bank deposits were better than T-Bills as the yields on T-Bills declined due to a 50bps cut in the discount rate by the SBP. As of June 30, 2013, the Weighted Average Maturity ("WAM") of the LMMF portfolio was 9 days compared to 33 days at the start of the month. The WAM of the LMMF portfolio declined as the exposure in bank deposits was increased during the month. The portfolio of the LMMF still offers very high liquidity and as on June 30, 2013, 100% portfolio of the LMMF comprised of instruments that can be liquidated within six (6) business days keeping in view the present market situation. The Standard Deviation, a measure of the volatility of the fund's performance, of monthly returns of the LMMF since inception is just 1.63%. WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 38.48 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 0.3718. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LMMF for FY13 would be higher by 0.14%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split AA 22%
T-Bills 24% Cash 38%
AAA 40%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Fund Rating Asset Manager Rating
Performance Morningstar FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD
LMMF 8.76% 8.10% 7.97% 7.96% 7.84% 8.76% 7.84%
Benchmark 9.14% 8.97% 8.55% 8.46% 8.20% 9.14% 8.20%
Simple Annualized FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD
LMMF 8.76% 7.82% 7.72% 7.74% 7.69% 8.76% 7.69%
Benchmark 9.14% 8.62% 8.26% 8.20% 8.03% 9.14% 8.03%
AA+ 38%
TDRs 38%
Open-End Money Market Fund 10,423 100.7055 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 1.25% None None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by Money Market Funds in the industry. Mon - Fri 4:00 PM 'AA' by PACRA AM3+
LMMF vs. Benchmark 125.00 120.00
Asset Allocation
115.00
Instruments Government Securities (T-Bills) Placements with Banks (TDRs) Placements with DFIs (LOPs) Cash
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % of Total Assets 96% 59% 24% 0% 36% 38% 0% 5% 0% 4% 0% 38%
WAM* Days 26 5 0 1
9.68% 9.17% 9.38%
9.39%
9.68%
9.25%
9.29%
110.00 105.00 100.00 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Benchmark
LMMF
* Weighted Average Maturity
Key Interest Rates (Monthly Average) KIBOR (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M) T-Bills (3M, 6M, 12M) Repo (O/N, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M)
9.67% 9.31% 9.10%
* Source: Bloomberg, Reuters
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
9.42% 9.16% 9.31%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil. 9 Days
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
06
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review The Lakson Income Fund ("LIF") provided an annualized yield of 7.79% for the month of June '13, compared to the Benchmark return (average return of all income funds) of 11.17%. The LIF underperformed the average income fund by 338bps. The yield since inception (13th November 2009) of the LIF stands at an annualized rate of 10.87%, compared to the Benchmark return of 8.25% p.a. During the month the LIF increased exposure in bank deposits as the banks offered better rates than T-Bills due to June end factor. Yields on the T-Bills declined due to a 50bps cut in the discount rate by the SBP therefore the exposure in bank deposits was increased to 19%. Exposure was also increased in TDRs to 29% compared to 15% at the start of the month. As of June 30, 2013, the WAM of the LIF portfolio was 410 days compared to 357 days at the start of the month. The WAM increased during the month as the fund size declined during the month due to quarter end redemptions. As of June 30, 2013, 68% of the portfolio of the LIF comprised of liquid instruments that can be liquidated within six (6) business days keeping in view the prevailing market conditions. In a situation where the income funds are providing very volatile returns, the standard deviation of annualized monthly returns of the LIF is only 1.82% compared to 3.83% for the Benchmark.
WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 8.49 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.5279. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LIF for FY13 would be higher by 0.19%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 10.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LIF.
Asset Allocation Cash 19%
Credit Split AA14%
T-Bills 20%
MTS 3% CPs 10%
A+ 1%
NR 3%
AAA 40%
AA 12%
TFCs 19%
TDRs 29%
AA+ 30%
TFCs Portfolio Name of the Issue Askari Bank Limited Bank Al Habib Limited Bank Alfalah Limited NIB Bank Limited Orix Leasing Pakistan Limited Pakistan Mobile Communications Pakistan Mobile Communications Standard Chartered Bank
Issue Date 23-Dec-11 30-Jun-11 20-Feb-13 05-Mar-08 30-Jun-11 28-Oct-08 18-Apr-12 29-Jun-12
Rating % of Total Assets AA4.42% AA 1.38% AA4.03% A+ 0.91% AA+ 1.70% AA1.53% AA3.64% AAA 1.52%
Government Securities (T-Bills) Placements with Banks (TDRs) Placements with DFIs (LOPs) Term Finance Certificates (TFCs) Commercial Papers (CPs) Margin Trading System (MTS) Cash
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
WAM*
63% 0% 0% 16% 13% 4% 4%
% of Total Assets 43% 15% 8% 16% 13% 4% 1%
20% 29% 0% 19% 10% 3% 19%
Days 25 6 0 2,055 45 30 1
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Fund Rating Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Income Fund 1,639 101.1528 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Mon - Fri 4:00 PM 'A+' by PACRA AM3+
Performance Morningstar FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD
LIF 9.21% 7.79% 7.88% 8.54% 8.25% 9.21% 8.25%
Benchmark 9.17% 11.17% 9.40% 9.33% 8.48% 9.17% 8.48%
Simple annualized FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD
LIF 9.21% 7.52% 7.63% 8.28% 8.09% 9.21% 8.09%
Benchmark 9.17% 10.51% 9.02% 9.00% 8.30% 9.17% 8.30%
LIF vs. Benchmark 125.00 120.00 115.00 110.00 105.00
Asset Allocation Instruments
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date
100.00 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Benchmark
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil. 410 days
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
07
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review The Lakson Equity Fund ("LEF") increased by 0.24% in June '13 compared to the KSE-30 Index decline of 3.98% and the KSE-100 Index return of 3.75%. The LEF outperformed the KSE-30 Index by 4.22% and the KSE-100 Index by 3.98%. The LEF has provided a cumulative return of 83.84% since its inception. During the month, the LEF maintained its exposure in equities at 75%. During the month the LEF increased exposure in Personal Goods sector while exposure in Construction & Materials, Oil & Gas, Commercial Banks and Chemicals sectors was reduced. Presently the market is trading at a P/E multiple of 8.98x with an average dividend yield of 5.96%. WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.43 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 1.6768. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LEF for FY13 would be higher by 0.81%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 7.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LEF.
D. G. Khan Cement Engro Corporation Limited Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited Kohat Cement Limited Lucky Cement Limited Nishat Mills Limited Pakistan Oilfields Limited Pakistan Petroleum Limited The Hub Power Company Limited
4.88% 5.43% 4.63% 5.22% 5.56% 5.52% 3.82% 7.25% 6.86% 4.99%
Sectorwise Exposure
May-13
Jun-13
22.13% 16.28% 17.63% 10.83% 4.70% 3.44%
20.59% 15.96% 15.28% 9.87% 6.74% 6.57%
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets) Equities Treasury Bills Cash & Equivalents
Open-End Equity Fund 121 141.4609 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 3.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-100 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM AM3+
Asset Allocation
Top 10 Holdings (In Alphabetical Order)
Construction & Materials Oil & Gas Chemicals Commercial Banks Personal Goods Others
Fund Facts
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Asset Manager Rating
Performance
Cash & Equi. 25%
Equities 75%
FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD
LEF
KSE-30
KSE-100
40.02% 0.24% 9.02% 11.72% 19.16% 40.02% 19.16%
35.95% -3.98% 10.70% 14.07% 17.76% 35.95% 17.76%
52.20% -3.75% 10.66% 16.42% 24.25% 52.20% 24.25%
Sectorwise Exposure Others Personal Goods
Const. & Mat.
LEF vs. Benchmark
Commercial Banks
185.00
Chemicals
Oil & Gas
165.00 145.00 125.00
Apr-13 73% 13% 15%
May-13 75% 12% 13%
105.00
Jun-13 75% 0% 25%
85.00
Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
LEF
KSE-100
KSE-30
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
1M Return -3.75% -1.84% 0.24% -6.09% -1.36% -1.50%
P/E 8.98 17.14 16.94 14.29 14.49 15.66
Div. Yield 5.96 1.79 3.14 3.55 2.53 2.17
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
08
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review TThe Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund ("LAAGCF") declined by 0.37% in June '13 compared to the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% DB Commodity Index) decline of 0.05%. The LAAGCF underperformed the Benchmark by 32bps. The LAAGCF has appreciated by 9.49% since its inception. As of June 30, 2013, the LAAGCF has 24% exposure in International commodities. The LAAGCF's 24% international exposure is in DB Balanced Commodity ETF which tracks the performance of DBLC-OY Balanced Index. During the month the DB Commodity Index declined by 4.5%. WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.60 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.2270. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LAAGCF for FY13 would be higher by 0.07%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 7.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LAAGCF.
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 276 103.7427 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 2.00% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 30% DB Commodity Index +70% 6-month TBills Mon - Fri 04:00 PM AM3+
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF) Commodity Gold WTI Crude Oil RBOB Gasoline Brent Crude Oil Heating Oil Soybeans Corn Sugar Zinc Aluminium Copper Natural Gas Silver Minnepolis Wheat Wheat (Kansas) Wheat Sectorwise Exposure as of Energy Agriculture Base Metals Precious Metals
Weight as of May-13 11.81% 8.84% 8.76% 8.40% 8.24% 7.91% 7.23% 7.05% 6.30% 6.26% 6.18% 3.90% 2.53% 2.30% 2.16% 2.13%
Asset Allocation Fund Performance Cash 19%
Commodities 24%
T-Bills 57%
FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD Since Inception
Sectorwise Exposure
3.44% -0.37% -0.23% -0.90% -0.49% 3.44% -0.49% 9.49%
7.89% -0.05% 0.12% -0.36% 1.29% 7.89% 1.29% 15.21%
LAAGCF vs. Benchmark 112.00
Energy 38.14%
Base Metals 18.74%
Benchmark
115.00
Precious Metals 14.34%
May-13 38.14% 28.78% 18.74% 14.34%
LAAGCF
109.00 106.00 103.00
Agriculture 28.78%
100.00
Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Benchmark
LAAGCF
Asset Allocation Instruments Government Securities (T-Bills) Global Commodities Cash
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % of Total Assets 73% 72% 57% 26% 26% 24% 1% 2% 19%
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
09
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review The Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund ("LAADMF") declined by 0.15% in June '13 compared to the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% MSCI World Index) return of 0.06%. The LAADMF underperformed the Benchmark by 21bps. The LAADMF has appreciated by 17.61% since its inception. As of June 30, 2013 the LAADMF has 28% exposure in the Developed Markets equities. The Developed Markets declined during June '13 as the benchmark MSCI World Index declined by 2.61%. The LAADMF's 28% exposure international exposure is in iShares MSCI World ETF which tracks the performance of the MSCI World Index. WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.47 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 0.3027. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LAADMF for FY13 would be higher by 0.22%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 7.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities (iShares MSCI World ETF)
Security Exxon Mobil Corp Apple Inc Microsoft Corp General Electric Johnson & Johnson Cheveron Corp Nestle SA Google Inc Intl Business Machines Corp Procter & Gamble
Asset Allocation
As of Jun-13
% of ETF's Assets 1.48% 1.32% 0.95% 0.89% 0.86% 0.84% 0.83% 0.80% 0.75% 0.75%
Cash 10%
DM Equities 28%
T-Bills 62%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Asset Manager Rating
Fund Performance FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD Since Inception
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 541 111.0748 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 2.00% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 30% MSCI World Index +70% 6-month T-Bills Mon - Fri 04:00 PM AM3+
LAADMF Benchmark 10.52% -0.15% 0.46% 1.70% 5.13% 10.52% 5.13% 17.61%
13.45% 0.06% 0.56% 1.96% 6.18% 13.45% 6.18% 25.14%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark 125.00 120.00
Asset Allocation
115.00
Instruments
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % of Total Assets 70% 68% 62% 29% 29% 28% 1% 2% 10%
Government Securities (T-Bills) Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
110.00 105.00 100.00 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Benchmark
LAADMF
MSCI World Index Composition (As of Jun-13) Country United States Japan United Kingdom Canada France
Weight 54.87% 9.40% 8.96% 4.21% 3.80%
Sectors Financials Consumer Discretionary Information Technology Health Care Industrials
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets
Weight 20.77% 11.99% 11.75% 11.35% 11.01%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
10
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
iShares MSCI World ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type IDWR LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
iShares MSCI World ETF (Developed Markets): Holdings
Type IDWR LN Equity DES and click on Holdings
11
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review The Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund ("LAAEMF") declined by 0.74% in June '13 compared to the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% MSCI Emerging Markets Index) decline of 1.21%. The LAAEMF outperformed the Benchmark by 47bps. The LAAEMF has appreciated by 12.03% since its inception. As of June 30, 2013 the LAAEMF has 27% exposure in Emerging Markets equities. The LAAEMF's 27% international exposure is in iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF which tracks the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Emerging market equities declined during the month as the followed the developments in the developed world. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a decline of 6.8% during the month. WWF Disclosure As of June 30, 2013 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.69 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 0.2584. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY13, the return of the LAAEMF for FY13 would be higher by 0.11%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 7.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Quarterly Report as of March 31, 2013) of the LAAEMF.
Emerging Market Equities (iShare MSCI EM ETF)
Security
Asset Allocation
As of Jun-13 % of ETF Assts
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
Cash 17%
3.67%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd 2.57% China Mobile Ltd
1.79%
China Construction Bank Corp
1.41%
Blackrock FDR III
1.39%
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd
1.24%
America Movil SAB de CV
1.22%
Tencent Holdings Ltd.
1.17%
Gazprom OAO
1.11%
MTN Group
0.88%
EM Equities 27%
T-Bills 56%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.06.2013) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date
Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 281 105.8777 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 2.00% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 30% MSCI Emerging Markets Index +70% 6-month T-Bills Mon - Fri 04:00 PM AM3+
Fund Performance
LAAEMF Benchmark
Benchmark
FY13 June-13 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY13 - YTD Since Inception
5.46% -0.74% -1.77% -1.14% -0.96% 5.46% -0.96% 12.03%
8.50% -1.21% -1.46% -0.79% 0.64% 8.50% 0.64% 18.56%
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark 120.00
Asset Allocation Instruments Government Securities (T-Bills) Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
116.00
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % of Total Assets 71% 69% 56% 28% 27% 27% 1% 3% 17%
112.00 108.00 104.00 100.00 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Benchmark
EEM Composition (As of Jun - 13) Country Exposure China South Korea Taiwan Brazil South Africa
17.22% 14.49% 11.81% 10.86% 7.12%
Sectors Allocations Financials Information Technology Energy Materials Consumer Staples
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2013 Non Performing Assets
26.61% 14.40% 11.36% 9.55% 9.49%
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
12
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF: Allocations
Type EEM US Equity DES and click on Allocations
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF: Holdings
Type EEM US Equity DES and click on Holdings
13
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of July 02, 2013 Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund IGI Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB Dynamic Cash Fund NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Saving Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Savings Income Fund
Annualized Returns (%) 30 Days 9.51 9.09 8.85 7.56 11.81 12.74 7.22 7.48 9.26 7.48 17.66 26.06 7.94 9.62 5.29 9.23 8.16
90 Days 8.29 7.26 8.01 7.04 8.39 10.63 7.82 8.20 8.17 8.19 14.14 15.55 7.84 8.07 8.01 8.50 7.81
180 Days 7.50 7.53 7.66 9.19 8.00 9.51 8.87 8.12 8.05 8.49 8.62 14.11 7.89 7.65 6.91 8.19 7.57
270 Days 7.94 8.40 7.72 8.78 7.32 10.02 8.83 8.42 8.71 8.62 3.89 12.56 8.17 8.33 6.21 8.58 8.00
365 Days 9.91 9.60 8.69 9.46 8.02 9.95 10.67 9.29 9.77 9.30 6.88 10.45 8.80 9.46 7.18 9.54 9.32
8.55 9.23 8.33 8.37 8.43 8.43 8.86 8.26 8.63 9.04 8.42 8.45 7.90 8.75 8.26 8.15 8.54 8.60 8.12 9.02 8.25
8.13 8.76 7.98 8.03 8.04 8.16 8.34 7.98 8.11 8.50 8.07 8.29 7.76 8.18 7.91 8.06 8.25 8.15 7.72 8.97 7.85
8.05 8.62 7.89 7.99 7.89 8.01 8.18 7.90 8.16 8.34 7.94 8.27 7.72 8.07 7.72 7.97 8.18 8.00 7.77 9.85 7.79
8.36 8.83 8.06 8.37 8.15 8.37 8.43 8.18 8.47 8.64 8.24 8.55 8.03 8.41 7.94 8.27 8.39 8.33 8.13 N/A 8.13
9.14 9.58 9.05 9.26 9.04 9.15 9.07 9.04 9.33 9.47 9.11 9.22 8.78 9.22 8.68 9.16 9.07 9.09 N/A N/A 8.97
9.69 22.82 13.02 6.60 8.09 10.45 29.80 7.08 18.95
9.14 3.51 10.22 11.30 8.20 10.96 13.12 9.76 12.40
9.21 8.31 10.03 9.71 7.85 9.03 15.58 9.70 16.67
6.01 15.57 3.42 10.75 8.31 9.59 N/A 8.87 13.29
6.58 11.22 1.90 13.76 9.26 10.88 17.59 7.32 10.79
Money Market Funds ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund IGI Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund KASB Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund Primus Cash Fund Primus Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund
Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Saving Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund IGI Aggressive Income Fund KASB Income Opportunity Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of July 02, 2013 Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Habib Stock Fund HBL Stock Fund IGI Stock Fund JS Large Cap Fund Lakson Equity Fund MCB Dynamic Stock Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust Pakistan Premier Fund Pakistan Stock Market Fund Pakistan Strategic Allocation Fund PICIC Stock Fund United Stock Advantage Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 0.02 (0.70) (2.07) 1.85 (0.81) (3.20) (0.16) 2.52 3.11 1.43 (0.22) 1.02 1.65 (2.58) (1.12) (5.27) (0.03) 0.26
90 Days 17.28 24.05 13.38 15.98 13.69 9.56 11.97 15.54 13.40 11.68 13.51 15.62 23.03 11.24 12.68 5.69 15.95 18.61
180 Days 31.73 32.24 27.89 24.78 24.31 17.91 23.91 36.04 31.01 19.36 23.99 25.03 27.55 20.79 22.48 14.21 30.82 29.07
270 Days 39.99 51.33 27.82 35.65 33.66 24.71 32.52 47.43 43.53 27.87 34.00 32.76 40.34 31.53 32.87 22.62 34.40 38.99
365 Days 55.40 71.95 41.45 41.93 50.66 33.14 44.37 66.72 54.54 39.81 52.36 54.69 57.69 47.03 49.25 32.21 50.33 53.63
13.51
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund
1.99
8.73
8.76
12.61
HBL Multi Asset Fund
0.89
10.69
19.12
26.67
37.75
NAFA Multi Asset Fund
1.96
12.82
19.79
22.60
33.94
Pakistan Capital Market Fund
(1.53)
7.82
12.87
18.99
27.98
Unit Trust of Pakistan
1.63
11.17
22.18
29.86
42.10
Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund
715.79
813.46
893.35
921.81
994.46
Askari Asset Allocation Fund
1.77
12.83
20.28
28.84
39.59
Faysal Asset Allocation Fund
3.65
13.21
15.27
11.45
13.88
JS Aggressive Asset Allocation
(0.79)
7.03
14.75
16.68
24.22
KASB Asset Allocation Fund
(0.67)
2.24
12.56
17.52
23.38 11.03
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
(0.15)
1.70
5.14
7.18
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
(1.21)
(1.14)
(0.55)
2.44
6.07
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
(0.30)
(0.90)
(0.58)
(0.12)
3.82
MCB Dynamic Allocation Fund
(0.08)
3.40
6.85
10.50
18.22
NAFA Asset Allocation Fund
1.43
10.59
19.23
20.67
31.95
Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund
1.57
8.21
17.17
25.31
31.61
(11.91)
(10.06)
(7.15)
(4.19)
(0.22)
0.10
(0.00)
2.48
3.90
7.58
Capital Protected Funds ABL AMC Capital Protected Fund IGI Capital Protected Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % YTD-CY13 3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
Total Return in USD and %
Markets
Index
YTD-CY13 3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
World
MSCI All Country World Index
4.7%
-1.2%
14.0%
16.5%
4.7%
-1.2%
14.0%
0.1%
Developed
MSCI World Index
7.1%
-0.1%
16.0%
19.0%
7.1%
-0.1%
16.0%
2.2%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
China Dubai India
BSE Sensex 30
Japan
Nikkei 225
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-10.9%
-9.1%
0.3%
0.7%
-10.9%
-9.1%
0.3%
-13.5%
0.0%
-2.0%
15.3%
-7.3%
0.0%
-2.0%
15.3%
-20.4%
CSI 300
-12.8%
-11.8%
-10.6%
-8.2%
-12.8%
-11.8%
-10.6%
-21.2%
DFM
37.0%
21.5%
53.1%
-52.5%
37.0%
21.5%
53.1%
-59.2%
-0.2%
3.0%
11.3%
67.7%
-0.2%
3.0%
11.3%
44.1%
31.6%
10.3%
51.9%
18.1%
31.6%
10.3%
51.9%
1.5%
5.0%
6.1%
10.9%
74.0%
5.0%
6.1%
10.9%
49.5%
24.3%
16.4%
52.2%
70.9%
24.3%
16.4%
52.2%
46.8%
8.5%
6.7%
23.3%
189.0%
8.5%
6.7%
23.3%
148.2% 10.5%
Pakistan
KSE 100
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
UK
FTSE 100
5.4%
-3.1%
11.6%
28.6%
5.4%
-3.1%
11.6%
US
DJIA
13.8%
2.3%
15.8%
52.9%
13.8%
2.3%
15.8%
31.4%
US
S&P 500
12.6%
2.4%
17.9%
46.1%
12.6%
2.4%
17.9%
25.5%
US
NASDAQ 100
9.3%
3.2%
11.2%
84.4%
9.3%
3.2%
11.2%
58.4%
Germany
DAX Index
4.6%
2.1%
24.0%
44.4%
4.6%
2.1%
24.0%
24.0%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
-2.4%
-4.9%
4.6%
-2.4%
-2.4%
-4.9%
4.6%
-16.2%
France
CAC - 40
2.7%
0.2%
17.0%
-1.9%
2.7%
0.2%
17.0%
-15.7%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
-22.1%
-15.8%
-12.7%
-15.0%
-22.1%
-15.8%
-12.7%
-27.0%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
-6.7%
-7.1%
0.5%
29.5%
-6.7%
-7.1%
0.5%
11.2%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
4.7%
1.8%
10.5%
24.7%
4.7%
1.8%
10.5%
7.2%
Automobile and Parts
39.5%
20.4%
63.0%
45.7%
39.5%
20.4%
63.0%
25.1%
Banks
12.2%
19.9%
26.5%
-24.7%
12.2%
19.9%
26.5%
-35.3%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors
Chemicals
2.9%
0.8%
6.4%
29.3%
2.9%
0.8%
6.4%
11.1%
Construction and Materials
46.0%
24.7%
112.4%
109.9%
46.0%
24.7%
112.4%
80.3%
Electricity
33.1%
21.4%
56.8%
90.3%
33.1%
21.4%
56.8%
63.5%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
28.8%
8.4%
63.7%
-43.3%
28.8%
8.4%
63.7%
-51.3%
Food Producers
36.7%
16.2%
78.6%
320.0%
36.7%
16.2%
78.6%
260.8%
Non Life Insurance
11.4%
10.0%
38.8%
-52.2%
11.4%
10.0%
38.8%
-59.0%
Oil and Gas
19.3%
14.8%
41.7%
53.3%
19.3%
14.8%
41.7%
31.7%
Personal Goods
25.6%
15.0%
92.8%
56.6%
25.6%
15.0%
92.8%
34.5%
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
1M
3M
6M
12M
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates YTD-CY13 3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
China
SHIBOR
7.35%
5.44%
4.24%
4.41%
4.43%
4.12%
4.12%
4.66%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.59%
0.91%
1.15%
1.33%
1.51%
1.21%
1.41%
1.56%
India
MIBOR
8.22%
8.52%
N.A.
N.A.
Japan
TIBOR
0.15%
0.23%
0.33%
0.34%
10.25% 10.00% 9.75%
0.41%
0.33%
0.39%
0.42%
9.50% 9.25%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.10%
3.20%
3.25%
3.35%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.27%
Pakistan
KIBOR
9.33%
9.08%
9.09%
9.41%
10.60%
9.53%
9.90%
11.19%
9.00%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
10.09%
11.54%
12.31%
12.92%
12.76%
12.72%
13.41%
11.72%
8.75%
UK
LIBOR
0.49%
0.51%
0.60%
0.90%
0.93%
0.59%
0.73%
1.01%
8.50%
US
SIBOR
0.19%
0.27%
0.41%
0.69%
0.61%
0.42%
0.54%
0.60%
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
Interbank June-13
1W
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
China
2.65%
3.67%
3.49%
3.61%
2.73%
India
7.49%
7.46%
7.70%
7.46%
7.97%
Japan
0.10%
0.09%
0.31%
0.85%
Malaysia
3.01%
3.01%
3.41%
3.63%
Pakistan
8.94%
8.94%
10.07%
Sri Lanka
8.66%
10.71%
UK
0.41%
0.31%
US
0.03%
0.14%
16
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR
10.50%
YTD-CY13 3-mo
1M
Govt. Sec. June-13
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities
1-yr
2-yr
2.89%
2.76%
2.86%
7.40%
7.82%
8.08%
0.09%
0.08%
0.09%
0.10%
3.02%
3.02%
3.03%
3.02%
Pakistan
10.93%
10.50%
9.36%
9.78%
11.05%
Sri Lanka
11.38%
11.77%
11.67%
11.00%
11.95%
10.65%
UK
1.43%
2.44%
0.31%
0.29%
0.26%
0.35%
US
1.39%
2.49%
0.15%
0.12%
0.15%
0.14%
China India Japan Malaysia
0%
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return Commodity
Unit
YTD-CY13 3-mo
1-yr
Current Prices 5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
-8.8%
-7.7%
-1.6%
-42.3%
500.3
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-5.4%
-5.9%
2.0%
-56.2%
4624.4
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-10.5%
-9.5%
-8.0%
-46.0%
250.5
Coal
USD/Tonne
-11.5%
-8.4%
-6.1%
N.A
83.0
Copper
USc/lbs
-16.5%
-10.3%
-12.6%
-21.7%
305.1
Cotton
USc/lbs
10.1%
-6.5%
14.6%
15.8%
82.7
Gold
USD/t oz.
-27.0%
-23.3%
-23.7%
31.8%
1223.7
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
-3.2%
-2.9%
-22.4%
-32.1%
735.6
Sugar
USc/lbs
-16.0%
-7.2%
-24.9%
36.0%
16.4
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
-16.6%
-5.7%
-12.2%
-23.1%
6.5
WTI
USD/bbl
5.2%
-0.7%
13.7%
-31.0%
96.6
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
-8.1%
-7.1%
4.5%
-26.9%
102.2
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
-5.4%
-1.2%
6.8%
N.A
288.0
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
-2.1%
-11.4%
0.9%
-21.4%
2.8
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
6.4%
-11.4%
26.2%
-73.3%
3.6
Silver
USD/t Ozs
-35.5%
-31.3%
-29.5%
11.7%
19.5
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
115
105
95
85
75
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Currencies Change Versus PKR in %
Current Exchange Rates
YTD-CY13
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
170
Canadian Dollar
CAD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-5.77%
CAD - PKR
63.10
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-3.30%
EUR - PKR
104.20
150
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.32%
INR - PKR
1.6102
130
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
-0.68%
110.16%
JPY - PKR
1.1769
110
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-16.25%
GBP - PKR
114.13
90
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
5.07%
SGD - PKR
52.85
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
16.41%
USD - PKR
79.63
17
GBP
70 Jun-12 Aug-12
EUR
Oct-12
CAD
USD
Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 May-13
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Notes
18
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ. Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document. No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document. Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr.Tassawar - Branch Manager 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - June 2013
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Tritex Cotton
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
