June 2016
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Tactical Fund (Formerly: FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund)
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
Rated AM2 by PACRA
Business Principles
Our investors' interests always come first. We believe that if we serve our clients well, our own success will follow. Integrity and honesty are at the heart of our business. We expect our people to maintain high ethical standards. Our commitment to our clients, integrity, professional excellence, entrepreneurial spirit and teamwork will set us apart. Our firm shares bonuses with all employees - not just top management, but also those who perform standard administrative and clerical duties. Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders. Profitability is critical to achieving superior returns, building our capital, and attracting and keeping the best people. Our business is highly competitive and we will aggressively seek to expand our client relationships. However, we are always fair competitors and never denigrate other firms.
Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Tactical Fund (Formerly: Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund)
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12
Funds Return History
13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 16
Markets Information
17 - 18
03
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Economy FY16 average CPI was recorded at a 46 year low of 2.85% versus 4.56% in FY15. Inflation for Jun'16 came in at 3.19% YoY, similar to last month's reading of 3.17% and below market expectations. Food inflation predictably picked up by 1.25% as the Ramadan effect played its traditional role in increasing prices. The rebound in inflation is expected to be contained in the coming months as the government has so far not passed on the increase in international oil prices to domestic consumers while uncertainty over the fallout from Brexit could keep commodity prices remain under pressure. Therefore inflationary projections for FY17 remain benign and in the range of 4.5% - 5.0%. Economic growth was led by Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) which grew by 3.9% YoY over 10MFY16. Private sector credit off-take grew by 10.4% YoY in May'16, likely benefitting from multi decade low interest rates and improved business sentiment. Outstanding advances worth PKR 3.68 tn were extended to the private-sector, led by Construction (up 45.3% YoY), Chemicals (up 29.3% YoY), and Transport (up 25.5% YoY).
Yield Curve
12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1W
Remarkably, the PKR lost only 2.9% against the USD during FY16, courtesy a 23.5% increase in foreign exchange reserves to an all time high of $23.1 bn. The USD 6.4 bn IMF program is set to complete in Sep'16 (for the first time in Pakistan's history) and more recently the WB and ADB approved programs worth a combined USD 1.6 bn for Pakistan.
The recent Brexit vote created some uncertainty as the UK accounts for (i) 13% of Pakistan's remittances, (ii) 7% of exports and (iii) 6% of FDI. Though Brexit would have a limited direct impact on Pakistan, at the sector level Textiles could continue to suffer while domestic demand themes such as Construction, Fertilizers, Staples and IPPs would remain largely unaffected. Fixed Income Review In the T-Bill auctions held during June the SBP accepted bids worth PKR 187.2 bn against a target of PKR 100 bn. Cut-off yields for 3M, 6M and 12M T-Bills declined to 5.90%, 5.93% and 5.96% respectively. Yields dropped by 4bps on average across all maturities, and participation remained skewed towards 6M as compared to 3M and 12M tenors. In the PIB auction, 3, 5, 10-year bonds settled at cut-off yields of 6.41%, 6.91%, and 8.02%, respectively. No bids were received in the 20-year tenor. Total bids amounting to PKR 219.9 bn against the target of PKR 50bn, while the SBP accepted PKR 44.8 bn. With massive maturities of almost PKR 2.0 tn looming in 1QFY17, it seems banks will be looking to hedge their positions and initiate strong buying across tenors. Combined with a benign inflation number for June, market participants would be hoping for another rate cut of 25 bps in the July Monetary Policy Review. This has already led to a significant rally in the bond markets and increases the risk of a sharp reversal if a rate cut does not materialize. Equities In June, the much-awaited news of Pakistan's inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was confirmed. Pakistan was upgraded from the Frontier Markets Index to the Emerging Markets Index because of improving macroeconomic indicators, ample liquidity and stability in law and order. The benchmark KSE 30 had been rising steadily in anticipation of the announcement and continued its upward momentum after the news. The index reached a high of 22,370 points with stocks expected to be included in the MSCI EM index among the top performers. The momentum saw a halt after global markets crashed due to Brexit. Though Pakistan is not expected to be affected by Britain's exit from the EU, the automobile and textile sectors would face concerns over the rallying Yen and depreciation in the Pound and Euro. The market closed at 21,653 points, up 4.2% from last month and is expected to continue rising as foreign inflows of ~USD 500 mn are expected after the upgrade. Pharmaceuticals (+13.5%) led the gain as the pricing policy was approved in the recent budget. The banking sector gained 9.3% on the back of HBL, MCB and UBL (MSCI stocks). The Electricity sector was up 7.5% as an attractive dividend yield drove price action. Cements gained 6.5% on the back of LUCK and DGKC (MSCI stocks). Personal Goods erased most of their gains in the last few months and lost 5.0% as depreciation in the Pound and Euro dampened expectations over export sales. Pakistan's inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index prompted heavy investment particularly in index heavyweights. Average traded value rose 7% to reach USD 65 mn per day. However, average volumes went down from 92 mn shares per day in May to 87 mn shares per day in June - a decline of 5%. Foreign investors (USD 74.1 mn) were net buyers in June along with Individuals (USD 81.9 mn), NBFCs (USD 24.3 mn) and mutual funds (USD 6.3 mn). Companies (USD 168.2 mn) and Banks (USD 23.3 mn) were net sellers.
6M
2Y
5Y
8Y
Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR 21.0
105.0
20.0 104.0 19.0
103.0
18.0 1-Jun
8-Jun
15-Jun
Market Rates
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% 1-Jun
10-Jun
6M KIBOR
19-Jun O/N Repo Rate
28-Jun 6M T-Bill
FY16 average CPI was recorded at a 46 year low of 2.85%.
Compared to the trailing 12 months (TTM) PE ratios of China's Shanghai Composite Index (16.1x) and of India's Sensex Index (20.1x), the TTM PE ratio of the KSE 30 index (10.5x) continues to trade at a significant discount.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
04
15Y
30-Jun-16
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves
Net FDI flows over 11MFY16 were recorded at USD 1,083 mn, reflecting a growth of 10.5% YoY. Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) remained flat on a YoY basis at USD 2,486 mn. The deficit is now 1.0% of GDP, same as that in the corresponding period last year and in-line with the government's target. On the fiscal front, the annual tax collection target of PKR 3.1 tn was successfully met. The FY17 Budget was notable for its pro-agriculture tilt, with some incentives also announced to push exports and the overall manufacturing sector. At the same time, headline targets (GDP growth: 5.7%, CPI: 6.0%, tax collection: PKR 3.95 tn) while appearing ambitious, are not impossible. This trend in policymaking is expected to continue ahead of the 2018 general elections which would bode well for Fertilizers, Tractors, Autos and Consumer Staples over the next 2 years.
2M
31-May-16
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets Review Developed markets sentiment was dominated by the UK's surprise vote to exit the European Union - and led to a rout across all major markets. The pessimism faded, however, by the end of the month, possibly because of UK's deferring trigger of Article 50 until the next PM takes office. The US wrapped up Jun'16 on a positive note by clawing back most of its losses following Brexit. With the release of above consensus economic data and the Fed maintaining status quo, the S&P 500 Index managed to close up 0.3% for the month. US PMI Index in Jun'16 struck a 3-month high of 51.3, while the employment index rose to 50.4 from 49.2 last month. The Japanese stock market plunged more than 8% as 4Q15 earnings growth fell by a sharp 32% YoY due to a sustained rally in the JPY. Emerging Markets In line with global indices, emerging markets plunged after the Brexit vote. These losses were rapidly recovered as investors bet that the Fed would remain prudent and decide against monetary tightening to avoid further volatility. Speculations were also rife that the ECB may opt for further stimulus to improve sentiment and liquidity following the uncertainty over Brexit. China's stock market closed at 2,929 points, up only 0.45% in June. In its annual review session, the MSCI upgraded Pakistan's status from frontier market to emerging market based on the country's improved economic indicators and stable liquidity. The MSCI, however, decided to delay the inclusion of China's A shares in its Emerging Markets Index till improvements in increasing accessibility for foreign investors were seen. India's Sensex Index closed at 26,999 points, up 1.24% MoM. Commodities Commodity prices plummeted in June after Britain decided to leave the European Union. Investors turned towards safe haven gold, which closed at a level of USD 1,322 - a jump of 9%. Brent crude recovered most of its losses since February of this year on the back of shrinking U.S. stockpiles and disruptions in supply from Nigeria and Canada. Brent closed the month at USD 49.68, little changed from its May closing. WTI oil, however, declined 2.4% to USD 48.3. Coal recovered and gained 7% to close at USD 59.2. Record high temperatures and reduction in shale production over the last few months prompted natural gas to be the top energy commodity as it gained 28% over the last quarter.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 120%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index
100%
80%
60% Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Valuations of International Markets
20
16
12
8
4
-
DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India
P/E Multiple
Emerging markets plunged after the Brexit vote.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
05
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
China
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund generated an annualized return of 5.77% against the benchmark return of 5.10% in June 2016. The Fund outpeformed the benchmark by 0.67%. During FY16 the Fund has returned 5.60% to unit holders against the benchmark of 5.61% and declared a dividend of PKR 5.7016 per unit. Asset allocation remained stable with T bill and cash exposure at 25% and 75% respectively. Portfolio WAM was recorded at 15 days. In a lower interest rate enviornment the Fund will continue to focus on high yielding cash and deposit instruments which can provide an attractive premium over short term sovereign debt. WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 53.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 0.97. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
AA+ 1%AA 66%
AA+ 18%
Cash 75%
AAA 48%
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills Cash Others including receivables
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 % of Total Assets 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 24% 25% 56% 75% 75% 1% 0% 0%
WAM* Days 0 0 71 0
* Weighted Average Maturity
Non Compliant Investments Name of Non - Compliant Type of Investment Instrument
Value of Investment before
Total Value of % of Net % of Total Provisioning Investment Assets Assets Held after
Provisioning Pak Brunei Investment Co. Pak Oman Investment Co.
COI COI
600,000,000 600,000,000
Provisioning -
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 15 Days
Open-End Money Market Fund 5,297 100.143 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 0.50% and maximum of 1.00% of the average annual net assets Front End Load None Back End Load None Launch Date November 13, 2009 Benchmark 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'AA' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Low Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Performance
Govt Sec 16% Govt Sec 25%
AA 26%
T-Bills 25%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
600,000,000 10.56% 600,000,000 10.56%
10.39% 10.39%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LMMF 5.60% 5.92% 5.80% 5.80% 5.74% 5.60% 5.74%
Benchmark 5.61% 5.22% 5.40% 5.32% 5.36% 5.61% 5.36%
Simple Annualized FY16 - YTD June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LMMF 5.60% 5.77% 5.67% 5.68% 5.66% 5.60% 5.66% 7.90% 9.92% 11.83%
Benchmark 5.61% 5.10% 5.28% 5.22% 5.28% 5.61% 5.28% 8.09% 10.20% 12.07%
Please note that the benchmark of the fund was changed in February 2014. Benchmark calculation of tenors which include months prior to February 2014 incorporate the old benchmark as well.
LMMF vs. Benchmark 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Benchmark
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved. Tha Lakson Money Market Fund holds certain non-complaint investments. Before making any investment decision investors should review this document and the latest financial statements.
06
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review During June 2016 the LIF generated an annualized return of 8.66% against the benchmark return of 8.12%. The LIF outpeformed the benchmark by 0.54%. Over FY16 the LIF generated a return of 8.57% and outperformed the average income fund by 1.41%. Asset allocation changed with allocation to PIBs and T bills dropping from 17% and 6% to 2% and 2% respectively. Exposure to TFCs increased from 5% to 10% while cash holdings were recorded at 65%. The reduction in PIB exposure led to a lower WAM of 282 days. Going forward the Fund will focus on higher recurring yields and limiting interest rate risk as we are near the bottom of the interest rate cycle and any adverse macroeconomic developments could lead to sharp reversals in the bond market. WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 11.8 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.27. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LIF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split Govt Sec A- 4% AA+ 3% AAA 1% 7%
Placements with Banks/ DFIs 19%
Other 2%
Cash 65%
PIB T-Bill 2% 2% TFCs 10%
Unrated 0.27% A+ 61%
Sukuk 1%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Open-End Income Fund 2,915 101.1380 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'A+' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Performance AA 18%
AA4%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LIF 8.57% 9.02% 8.68% 6.79% 7.70% 8.57% 7.70%
Benchmark 7.16% 8.43% 8.07% 6.60% 7.27% 7.16% 7.27%
Simple annualized FY16 - YTD June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LIF 8.57% 8.66% 8.38% 6.62% 7.56% 8.57% 7.56% 11.45% 12.74% 14.43%
Benchmark 7.16% 8.12% 7.81% 6.44% 7.15% 7.16% 7.15% 10.24% 11.07% 12.08%
TFCs/Sukuk Portfolio Name of the Issuer NRSP Habib Bank Limited I Bank Al Falah Limited V Askari Bank Limited IV K-Electric AZM Sukuk III
Issue Date 30-Jun-16 19-Feb-16 20-Feb-13 23-Dec-11 24-Feb-14
Rating % of Total Assets A3.37% AAA 2.53% AA2.22% AA1.91% AA 1.41%
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills TFCs Sukuks MTS Cash Others including receivables
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
24% 17% 11% 5% 1% 1% 39% 1%
% of Total Assets 21% 17% 6% 5% 1% 2% 46% 1%
19% 2% 2% 10% 1% 0% 65% 1%
LIF vs. Benchmark
WAM*
124
Days 94 2662 203 1890 969 20 0
122 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 Jun-14
Non Compliant Investments
JS Bank Limited
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
LIF
Investment Committee
Type of Instrument
Value of Investment before Provisioning
TDR
300,000,000
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Feb-15 Benchmark
* Weighted Average Maturity
Name of Non - Compliant Investment
Oct-14
Total Provisioning Held
-
Nil. Nil. 282 Days
Value of Investment after Provisioning
300,000,000
% of Net Assets
10.3%
% of Total Assets
10.1%
Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
07
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review LEF closed FY16 on a high note, generating a FYTD return of 10.6% v 0.4% of the benchmark, a whopping over performance of 102bps. The fund maintained a strong exposure in the market, realizing gains in overvalued sectors and reshuffling into stocks where upside potential was available at low prices. Trimming was seen in dividend yielding stocks where price appreciation had eroded yields. Proceeds were redirected into Fertilizers, Cements, Oil and Banks. The month ended with a cash pay out of 1.0348% of par value of PKR 100. WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 19.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 0.80. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LEF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings
Asset Allocation
May-16
Jun-16
14.18% 20.49% 17.56% 10.62% 14.44% 11.37%
15.67% 21.54% 18.94% 9.99% 14.63% 10.62%
Equity 91%
Sectorwise Exposure Others
10.60% 2.72% 5.61% 9.33% 12.19% 10.60% 12.19% 78.57% 183.90% 233.03%
0.37% 4.19% 7.16% 12.97% 12.29% 0.37% 12.29% 31.15% 86.75% 126.44%
FY16 - YTD June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16- YTD 3 YEAR 5 YEAR SINCE INCEPTION
*Returns based on last working day NAV
LEF vs. Benchmark 300
Commercial Banks
Const. & Mat.
250 200
Electricity
150 100
LEF
KSE-100
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
0
Nov-15
50
Jun-16 91% 0% 8% 1%
Sep-15
May-16 90% 0% 10% 0%
Jul-15
Apr-16 84% 0% 16% 1%
Apr-15
Equities Government Securities (T-Bills) Cash & Equivalents Others
KSE-30
Chemicals
Oil & Gas
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets)
LEF
Aug-15
Chemicals Const. & Mat. Oil & Gas Electricity Comm Banks Others
Others 1%
Cash 8%
Performance
Jun-15
Sectorwise Exposure
6.48% 6.45% 6.31% 6.24% 6.19% 5.74% 5.43% 5.00% 4.71% 2.96%
Open-End Equity Fund 2,838 114.3295 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 2.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
May-15
Habib Bank Limited Engro Corporation Limited Pakistan State Oil Limited Lucky Cement Limited DG Khan Cement Limited Pak Petroleum Limited Oil & Gas Development Co United Bank Limited Pioneer Cement Limited Hub Power Co
Fund Facts
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
KSE-30
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
1M Return 4.78% 1.24% 1.73% -0.08% 0.80% 0.09%
P/E 10.25 20.1 18.21 11.12 17.01 19.44
Div. Yield 5.5% 1.5% 3.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
08
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Lakson Tactical Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
(Formerly: Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund)
Fund Facts Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Tactical Fund (Formerly: Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund) is to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing in a mix of securities comprising debt, equity and commodities future contracts. Performance Review During the month of June 2016 the Lakson Tactical Fund generated an absolute return of 1.54% against the benchmark return of 2.14%. The Fund outperformed the benchmark by 3.67% over FY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (4%), PIBs (1%), Equities (34%) and Cash (55%). WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 0.93. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAEMF.
Top 10 Holdings Habib Bank Engro Corp P.S.O. D.G.K. Cement Pak Petroleum Oil & Gas Dev. Lucky Cement United Bank Pioneer Cement K-Electric Ltd.
2.49% 2.49% 2.47% 2.45% 2.25% 2.12% 2.09% 1.94% 1.78% 1.29%
Asset Allocation T bills 4% TFC 6% PIBs 1%
Cash 55%
Sectorwise Exposure as of Cement Banks Fertilizers Oil & Gas Electricity Others
May-16 7.67% 4.87% 4.66% 4.46% 3.96% 9.40%
Jun-16 8.41% 5.53% 4.79% 4.37% 3.11% 7.71%
Equity 34%
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 661 102.6247 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated Management Fee on a daily basis. The fee is subject to a minimum of 1% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Weighted average daily return of KSE-30 index , 6M KIBOR & DBIQ Optimum Benchmark Yield Diversified Commodity Index excess return based on the scheme's actual proportion in equity, debt and commodities Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Fund Performance
Benchmark*
LTF
FY16 June-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
6.85% 1.54% 1.50% 1.55% 3.54% 6.85% 3.54% 21.26% NA 32.77%
3.18% 2.14% 3.08% 3.84% 5.20% 3.18% 5.20% 8.86% NA 23.65%
* The new Benchmark is effective from April 19, 2016
LTF vs. Benchmark 139 134 129 124 119 114
Asset Allocation
Disclosures Leverage as on May 31, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
Jun-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Feb-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Aug-15
Oct-14
Feb-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Benchmark
Aug-14
Oct-13
Feb-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Aug-13
Oct-12
Feb-13
99
Dec-12
104
Jun-12
Placements with Banks (TDRs) T bills PIBs Global Commodities Term Finance Certificate (TFC) Equity Cash
109
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 36% 12% 4% 28% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 35% 34% 36% 43% 55%
Aug-12
Instruments
LTF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
09
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review During the month of June 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.36% against the benchmark return of -0.25%. The Fund outperformed the benchmark by 5.67% over FY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (15%), PIBs (38%), Developed Market Equities (31%) and Cash (16%). Exposure in equities has been focused on US indices which offer a superior risk/return profile to other Developed Markets. WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 2.7 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 0.99. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities Jun-16 QQQ ETF Apple Inc Microsoft Corp Amazon.com Inc Facebook Inc Alphabet Inc Alphabet Inc Comcast Corp Intel Corp Cisco Systems Inc Amgen Inc
% of ETF's Assets 10.18% 7.80% 6.64% 5.12% 4.66% 4.04% 3.06% 3.00% 2.81% 2.25%
% of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 3.02% Microsoft Corp 2.28% Exxon Mobil Corp 2.01% Johnson & Johnson 1.69% General Electric Co 1.54% Amazon.com Inc 1.52% Facebook Inc 1.49% Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.43% AT&T Inc 1.31% JPMorgan Chase & Co 1.30% Vanguard S&P 500
Asset Allocation Cash 16%
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 307 113.2854 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 15% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 1.25% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAADMF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of MSCI World Index and 6-month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Fund Performance
T-Bills 15%
DM Equities 31%
Fund Facts
PIBs 38%
FY16 June-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Instruments
2.33% -0.25% 0.09% 0.83% 1.24% 2.33% 1.24% 105.09% NA 51.60%
159
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 22% 12% 15% 48% 48% 38% 25% 26% 31% 5% 14% 16%
Placements with Banks & TDRs T-Bills PIBs Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
149 139 129 119 109 99
Weight 95.02% 1.82% 1.17% 0.76% 0.52%
Sectors United States Ireland United Kingdom Switzerland Singapore
Disclosures Nil. Nil.
Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16
Vanguard S&P 500 (As of Jun-16)
QQQ ETF (As of Jun-16)
Leverage as on June 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
8.00% 0.36% 2.17% 1.53% 4.20% 8.00% 4.20% 27.6% NA 50.07%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation
Country United States China Singapore United Kingdom Netherlands
LAADMF Benchmark
Weight 96.97% 1.21% 0.51% 0.48% 0.31%
Benchmark
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
10
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
PowerShares QQQ ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type QQQ US Equity DES and click on Allocations
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type VUSD LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
11
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review During the month of June 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.48% against the benchmark return of 1.04%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 4.37% over FY16. Allocation has been taken in PIBs (20%) and Cash (80%) which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of June 30th, 2016 the LTF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.2 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LTF would be higher by PKR 0.16. If the LTF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LTF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LTF.
Emerging Market Equities
As of Jun-16
Security
% of Assets
3.34% 3.25% 3.16% 2.07% 1.91% 1.73% 1.63% 1.50% 1.29% 1.07%
PIBs 20%
134 129 124 119 114 109
Nil. Nil.
Jun-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Feb-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Aug-15
Oct-14
Feb-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Benchmark
Aug-14
Oct-13
Feb-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Weight 13.83% 8.65% 8.29% 6.69% 6.34%
Aug-13
Sectors Banks Internet Semiconductors Telecommunications Oil&Gas
Oct-12
99
Feb-13
104
Disclosures Leverage as on June 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
0.05% 1.04% 0.34% 0.73% 2.89% 0.05% 2.89% 12.67% NA 33.61%
139
Dec-12
Weight 21.70% 14.36% 11.90% 8.47% 6.39%
4.42% 0.48% 0.99% 1.04% 2.26% 4.42% 2.26% 16.61% NA 30.64%
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 52% 52% 0% 24% 24% 20% 0% 0% 0% 24% 24% 80%
EEM Composition (As of Jun-16) Country China South Korea Taiwan India South Africa
LAAEMF Benchmark
FY16 June-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Cash 80%
Jun-12
Placements with Banks & TDRs T-Bills PIBs Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 101 102.5835 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is Benchmark calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2 by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Fund Performance
Asset Allocation Instruments
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.6.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Aug-12
Tencent Holdings Ltd Taiwan Semiconductor Samsung Electronics Co Alibaba Group Holding L China Mobile Ltd Naspers Ltd BlackRock Cash Funds China Construction Bank Baidu Inc Industrial & Commercial Bank
Asset Allocation
MUFAPs Recommended Format
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Kashif Mustafa Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
12
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Funds Return History The periodic returns for the funds have been presented below as per SECP's SCD Circular No. 16 dated July 03, 2014. The returns presented below are: Yearly returns for the last five fiscal years and Absolute returns for every fiscal year since inception The returns have been annualized for money market and income schemes where the performance evaluation is less than one year.
Last 3 and 5 Fiscal Years Lakson Money Market Fund (LMMF)
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15
FY'16
11.19% 11.31%
8.76% 9.14%
7.90% 8.50%
8.57% 8.45%
5.60% 5.61%
Fund
11.57%
9.21%
8.38%
14.17%
8.57%
Benchmark
8.86%
9.17%
8.31%
12.64%
7.16%
9.74%
40.02%
32.15%
23.93%
10.60%
10.45%
52.20%
25.96%
5.67%
0.37%
Fund Benchmark
Lakson Income Fund (LIF)
Lakson Equity Fund (LEF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund (LAADMF) Fund
6.42%
10.52%
9.64%
7.76%
8.00%
Benchmark
10.63%
13.45%
12.94%
5.34%
2.33%
Lakson Tactical Fund (Formerly: Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
(LAAGCF)
Fund
5.85%
3.44%
4.24%
8.86%
6.85%
Benchmark
7.25%
7.89%
7.47%
-1.02%
3.18%
Fund
6.23%
5.46%
6.40%
4.96%
4.42%
Benchmark
9.82%
8.50%
10.01%
3.36%
0.05%
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund (LAAEMF)
Since Inception Absolute Returns LMMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
FY'10 6.77% 6.66%
FY'11 19.25% 19.21%
FY'12 32.63% 32.73%
FY'13 44.25% 44.86%
FY'14 55.65% 57.17%
FY'15 68.98% 70.45%
FY'16 78.45% 80.01%
LIF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
7.16% 4.59%
19.49% 15.90%
33.35% 26.20%
45.63% 37.77%
57.84% 49.22%
80.20% 68.08%
95.65% 80.12%
LEF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
-0.66% 7.32%
19.65% 37.94%
31.30% 52.35%
83.84% 107.12%
142.95% 160.89%
201.09% 175.69%
233.00% 176.71%
LAADMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.42% 10.63%
17.62% 25.51%
28.95% 41.75%
38.96% 49.33%
50.08% 52.81%
LTF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
5.85% 7.25%
9.49% 15.71%
14.13% 24.36%
24.25% 23.09%
32.76% 27.00%
LAAEMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.23% 9.82%
12.03% 19.15%
19.20% 31.08%
25.11% 35.49%
30.64% 35.56%
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
13
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of July 04, 2016
Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Financial Sector Opportunity Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB DCF Income Fund. NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Savings Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Income Opportunity Fund (UIOF) Islamic Income Funds ABL Islamic Income Fund Al Ameen Islamic Sovereign Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Income Fund Askari Islamic Income Fund Atlas Islamic Income Fund Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund JS Islamic Government Securities Fund MCB Islamic Income Fund Meezan Islamic Income Fund Meezan Sovereign Fund NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund
Money Market Funds
ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Money Market Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund Atlas Sovereign Liquid Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund PIML Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund UBL Money Market Fund Islamic Money Market Funds Al Ameen Islamic Cash Fund HBL Islamic Money Market Fund Meezan Cash Fund
30 Days 8.42 10.77 10.78 6.93 9.29 4.62 4.34 8.66 5.58 5.09 5.61 5.60 5.56 5.37 5.53 8.34 12.69
90 Days 5.97 8.12 5.92 5.10 4.88 4.65 5.57 6.48 4.64 5.53 5.22 5.55 5.66 4.87 4.31 5.60 11.13
4.26 3.59 (47.78) 1.83 2.68 3.91 2.50 2.99 2.96 2.77 4.35 5.16
Annualized Returns (%) 180 Days 6.41 7.81 6.00 6.19 5.45 5.44 6.10 7.56 5.18 5.98 5.99 6.24 6.05 5.62 5.06 8.40 8.77
270 Days 6.26 7.36 5.65 5.87 5.23 4.89 5.91 7.23 5.40 6.01 6.26 6.63 5.99 5.44 4.82 7.70 7.69
365 Days 7.01 8.02 6.91 7.7 6.66 6.12 6.28 8.57 6.18 6.47 6.85 7.41 6.31 5.87 6.14 7.85 7.5
4.41 4.73 (13.90) 3.22 4.37 4.40 4.24 4.11 3.50 4.80 5.00 4.66
5.33 4.42 (3.75) 4.14 4.66 5.95 3.73 4.13 4.35 4.07 5.23 6.10
5.62 4.15 (1.35) 4.56 4.74 5.43 3.70 4.89 5.54 5.31 5.31 4.77
5.81 4.31 0.11 5.08 4.97 5.49 3.51 5.07 5.75 N/A 5.48 4.41
7.10 4.68 4.10 3.89 5.24 5.16 5.23 4.02 (58.96) 4.87 4.95 4.92 5.75 2.63 5.38 5.50 5.66 6.89 4.40 8.17 4.89
5.80 5.06 4.58 4.70 5.45 5.68 5.50 4.13 (16.21) 4.96 4.73 5.22 5.67 4.26 5.55 5.77 5.58 5.96 5.10 6.11 4.98
5.64 5.16 4.77 4.94 5.25 5.65 5.39 4.21 (5.45) 5.01 4.74 5.41 5.64 4.77 5.82 6.18 5.61 5.77 5.48 5.58 4.88
5.61 5.19 4.93 5.09 5.25 5.72 5.47 4.18 (1.88) 5.10 4.86 5.45 5.50 5.09 5.66 6.02 5.72 5.86 5.74 5.47 4.99
5.77 5.45 5.14 5.34 5.58 6.02 5.79 4.6 0.04 5.34 5.09 5.71 5.6 5.42 5.72 6.55 5.85 6.06 5.99 5.57 5.15
4.86 4.12 4.99
4.83 3.69 4.60
4.76 3.83 4.44
4.71 4.06 4.43
4.78 4.26 4.58
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of July 04, 2016 Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund Islamic Aggressive Income Funds Al Ameen Islamic Aggressive Income Fund NAFA Islamic Aggressive Income Fund Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Alfalah GHP Stock Fund Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Capital Mutual Fund First Habib Stock Fund HBL Stock Fund JS Growth Fund JS Large Cap Fund JS Value Fund Lakson Equity Fund MCB Pakistan Stock Market Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust PICIC Energy Fund PICIC Stock Fund PIML Value Equity Fund United Stock Advantage Fund Islamic Equity Funds ABL Islamic Stock Fund Al Ameen Shariah Stock Fund Al Meezan Mutual Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Stock Fund HBL Islamic Stock Fund JS Islamic Fund Meezan Islamic Fund PIML Islamic Equity Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 5.15 (29.00) 2.91 14.97 12.08 10.82 13.73
90 Days 4.99 (5.83) 4.06 7.88 8.09 5.63 11.57
180 Days 10.95 1.64 7.05 10.98 9.03 6.55 13.61
270 Days 9.46 3.15 7.02 10.88 7.74 6.43 13.13
365 Days 9.67 4.7 8.23 11.59 9.35 8.33 11.87
10.91 7.50
7.46 6.87
8.24 6.53
7.93 7.02
7.09 7.34
2.63 (0.80) (9.25) (4.65) 3.09 2.47 3.37 2.82 2.67 0.54 (0.12) 1.02 2.72 2.35 (3.34) 5.24 1.96 (0.44) 0.69 (1.27)
10.05 10.89 (3.03) 1.88 9.41 9.43 9.07 7.30 6.31 5.73 2.81 7.13 8.20 9.75 8.02 9.98 8.12 5.72 4.23 7.09
9.44 4.87 (2.60) 2.24 4.04 11.53 11.64 7.84 6.94 3.14 1.25 6.00 12.19 7.77 9.71 9.41 4.52 6.35 5.56 4.07
11.06 5.54 1.86 6.84 2.39 13.06 10.28 7.00 5.34 7.67 N/A 13.72 15.04 12.15 9.74 15.38 3.11 3.57 6.49 9.88
9.83 11.3 2.34 8.12 -5.25 5.05 6.97 1.26 2.59 3.96 4.02 12.96 10.6 3.84 7.64 8.61 -2.85 5.35 4.83 11.2
1.72 3.27 4.04 (9.23) 2.60 2.33 4.33 0.88
8.01 11.34 10.58 (3.32) 6.30 5.10 11.03 4.65
7.20 10.74 13.31 (0.87) 7.60 9.48 13.51 7.01
6.57 12.68 17.49 5.30 6.55 11.76 18.92 8.86
5.56 14.51 13.86 6.49 1 5.88 17.4 7.02
(7.82) 3.87 (1.39) 1.88 0.20
(1.08) 6.52 6.72 7.09 3.64
(8.85) 6.46 7.95 7.09 2.63
5.05 6.51 7.62 8.35 7.33
1.5 5.9 6.99 4.37 6.06
1.81 2.75
5.12 6.82
5.72 9.24
3.37 11.99
1.66 11.16
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund HBL Multi Asset Fund NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund Unit Trust of Pakistan Islamic Balanced Funds First Habib Islamic Balanced Fund Meezan Balanced Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of July 04, 2016 Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund Askari Asset Allocation Fund Faysal Asset Allocation Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Lakson Tactical Fund MCB Pakistan Asset Allocation Fund MCB Pakistan Frequent Payout Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund UBL Asset Allocation Fund Islamic Asset Allocation Funds Al Ameen Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund NAFA Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pakistan Int'l Element Islamic Asset Allocation Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days (10.38) 1.80 (3.67) 0.36 0.48 1.54 0.83 0.55 (0.90) 0.55 2.12
90 Days (4.21) 6.00 4.88 1.31 1.01 1.49 3.30 1.70 6.65 3.76 5.31
180 Days (2.43) (0.65) (4.36) 4.20 2.26 3.54 3.17 2.70 8.37 6.32 7.35
270 Days 1.93 (0.28) 1.38 7.24 2.89 4.55 3.73 N/A 7.73 6.73 9.45
365 Days 3.45 -6.25 -2.49 8 4.42 6.85 3.06 N/A 7.21 7.51 12.16
1.24 2.14 (1.48) (3.86) 2.91
4.01 6.80 5.42 (1.17) 9.55
5.21 5.23 7.80 3.57 10.14
7.01 3.98 8.70 3.59 10.34
9.14 -2.82 10.59 5.76 5.09
0.49 0.16
1.57 2.41
3.12 1.38
4.15 2.66
5.44 0.29
1.00 0.78
4.69 5.53
4.90 6.04
4.60 4.46
4.09 3.13
Capital Protected Funds HBL Mustahekum Sarmaya Fund 1 Pakistan Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund
Islamic Capital Protected Funds NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund I NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund II
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
16
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % Markets
Index
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
World Developed
MSCI All Country World Index
0.0%
0.3%
-5.7%
MSCI World Index
-0.6%
0.3%
-4.7%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
5.0%
-0.3%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
China
CSI 300
Dubai
DFM
India
BSE Sensex 30
Japan
Nikkei 225
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
Pakistan
KSE 100
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
UK
FTSE 100
US
DJIA
US
S&P 500
2.7%
US
NASDAQ 100
-3.8%
Germany
DAX Index
-9.9%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
8.1%
France
CAC - 40
Brazil
Total Return in USD and % YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yrWorld
16.8%
0.0%
0.3%
-5.7%
16.8%
24.2%
-0.6%
0.3%
-4.7%
24.2%
-14.2%
-27.2%
5.0%
-0.3%
-14.2%
-27.2% -9.2%
-7.3%
-4.2%
-13.8%
-9.2%
-7.3%
-4.2%
-13.8%
-15.5%
-2.0%
-29.5%
3.6%
-15.5%
-2.0%
-29.5%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
159.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
159.9%
3.4%
6.5%
-2.8%
43.3%
3.4%
6.5%
-2.8%
43.3%
-18.2%
-7.1%
-23.0%
58.7%
-18.2%
-7.1%
-23.0%
58.7%
-2.3%
-3.7%
-3.1%
4.8%
-2.3%
-3.7%
-3.1%
4.8%
15.1%
14.0%
9.8%
202.4%
15.1%
14.0%
9.8%
202.4%
-8.9%
3.5%
-10.5%
-8.3%
-8.9%
3.5%
-10.5%
-8.3%
4.2%
5.3%
-0.3%
9.4%
4.2%
5.3%
-0.3%
9.4%
2.9%
1.4%
1.8%
44.4%
2.9%
1.4%
1.8%
44.4%
1.9%
1.7%
58.9%
2.7%
1.9%
1.7%
58.9%
-1.5%
0.5%
90.0%
-3.8%
-1.5%
0.5%
90.0%
-2.9%
-11.6%
31.2%
-9.9%
-2.9%
-11.6%
31.2%
4.2%
-3.4%
5.7%
8.1%
4.2%
-3.4%
5.7%
-8.6%
-3.4%
-11.5%
6.4%
-8.6%
-3.4%
-11.5%
6.4%
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
18.9%
2.9%
-2.9%
-17.4%
18.9%
2.9%
-2.9%
-17.4%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
0.5%
-1.3%
-5.0%
-6.2%
0.5%
-1.3%
-5.0%
-6.2%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
3.9%
-0.9%
-7.0%
0.2%
3.9%
-0.9%
-7.0%
0.2%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors Automobile and Parts
-2.3%
5.9%
-2.4%
479.2%
-2.3%
5.9%
-2.4%
479.2%
Banks
1.6%
9.4%
-3.5%
114.6%
1.6%
9.4%
-3.5%
114.6%
Chemicals
-3.1%
4.6%
-7.9%
111.5%
-3.1%
4.6%
-7.9%
111.5%
Construction and Materials
22.2%
9.3%
23.1%
1081.7%
22.2%
9.3%
23.1%
1081.7%
Electricity
6.1%
10.2%
4.5%
212.6%
6.1%
10.2%
4.5%
212.6%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
-7.7%
1.2%
-25.8%
-16.3%
-7.7%
1.2%
-25.8%
-16.3%
Food Producers
2.9%
5.4%
-9.2%
160.8%
2.9%
5.4%
-9.2%
160.8%
Non Life Insurance
-10.4%
-10.4%
-1.1%
159.4%
-10.4%
-10.4%
-1.1%
159.4%
Oil and Gas
27.6%
21.8%
-5.8%
30.4%
27.6%
21.8%
-5.8%
30.4%
Personal Goods
2.1%
3.7%
-2.6%
171.4%
2.1%
3.7%
-2.6%
171.4%
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates
1M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
7.00%
China
SHIBOR
2.85%
2.95%
2.98%
3.05%
NA
2.94%
3.12%
3.83%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.69%
1.09%
1.34%
1.71%
NA
1.32%
1.14%
1.00%
India
MIBOR
7.68%
7.80%
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
6.25%
Japan
TIBOR
0.03%
0.06%
0.11%
0.13%
0.16%
0.12%
0.21%
0.24%
6.00%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.37%
3.67%
3.79%
3.87%
3.83%
3.79%
3.83%
3.82%
5.75%
Pakistan
KIBOR
6.24%
6.11%
6.14%
6.45%
6.32%
6.26%
6.53%
7.74%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
9.33%
9.80%
10.30%
10.76%
9.38%
10.19%
8.31%
7.81%
UK
LIBOR
0.52%
0.59%
0.74%
1.01%
0.74%
0.73%
0.74%
0.72%
US
SIBOR
0.47%
0.69%
0.99%
1.34%
0.90%
0.92%
0.73%
0.55%
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR Interbank Jun 16
6.75% 6.50%
5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 1W
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
China
2.63%
2.39%
2.69%
2.86%
2.30%
2.32%
2.33%
2.74%
India
India
8.31%
6.88%
#N/A
7.45%
7.05%
6.90%
7.21%
7.70%
Japan
Japan
-0.27%
-0.30%
-0.31%
-0.22%
-0.26%
-0.30%
-0.16%
-0.09%
Malaysia
2.69%
2.78%
3.37%
3.74%
2.73%
2.71%
2.90%
3.11%
Pakistan
5.80%
5.88%
6.58%
7.59%
6.12%
6.07%
6.32%
7.52%
Sri Lanka
9.88%
10.96%
#N/A
#N/A
9.85%
10.67%
8.69%
8.15%
UK
0.46%
0.15%
0.35%
0.87%
0.39%
0.40%
0.44%
0.43%
US
0.26%
0.43%
1.00%
1.47%
0.55%
0.55%
0.47%
0.32%
1M
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities
China
Malaysia Pakistan Sri Lanka UK US 0%
17
Govt. Sec. Jun 16
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return Commodity
Unit
YTD
Current Prices
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
15.0%
15.2%
-14.4%
-44.3%
317.5
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
9.9%
12.7%
-26.1%
-53.0%
2384.7
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
13.3%
12.8%
-13.3%
-43.6%
179.3
Coal
USD/Tonne
12.5%
11.4%
-6.3%
N.A
57.0
Copper
USc/lbs
2.8%
0.5%
-16.4%
-48.6%
219.5
Cotton
USc/lbs
-0.7%
7.5%
-6.9%
-60.7%
62.8
Gold
USD/t oz.
24.6%
7.0%
12.7%
-12.1%
1320.6
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
7.9%
-13.4%
1.2%
-41.6%
601.2
Sugar
USc/lbs
32.2%
31.3%
64.1%
-28.9%
20.2
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
-8.2%
-8.9%
-29.8%
-26.3%
4.3
WTI
USD/bbl
30.5%
26.1%
-18.7%
-49.4%
48.3
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
33.3%
25.5%
-21.9%
-55.8%
49.7
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
34.9%
25.3%
-21.3%
N.A
148.5
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
18.5%
5.3%
-28.1%
-50.5%
1.5
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
25.1%
49.3%
3.2%
-33.2%
2.9
Silver
USD/t Ozs
34.6%
20.2%
19.5%
-46.6%
18.6
120
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Currencies Change Versus PKR in % YTD
Current Exchange Rates
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
190
Canadian Dollar
CAD
0.00%
0.00%
-3.25%
-11.64%
CAD - PKR
78.87
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
2.81%
-6.48%
EUR - PKR
116.61
150
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-6.72%
INR - PKR
1.7941
130
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
4.55%
55.21%
JPY - PKR
0.8692
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
-1.06%
14.68%
GBP - PKR
158.28
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
-3.58%
4.14%
SGD - PKR
72.89
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
2.65%
21.52%
USD - PKR
104.48
18
GBP
EUR
Sep-15
Nov-15 Dec-15
CAD
USD
170
110 90 70 Jun-15
Aug-15
Jan-16 Mar-16
Apr-16
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
May-16
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ. Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document. No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document. Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr. Haider Abbas 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - June 2016
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassanali & Gulbanoo Lakhani Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
