AC TRANSIT DISTRICT
GM Memo No. 09-065a
Board of Directors Executive Summary
Meeting Date: March 11, 2009
Committees:
Planning Committee External Affairs Committee Rider Complaint Committee Board of Directors
□ □ D [X]
Finance and Audit Committee Operations Committee Paratransit Committee Financing Corporation
□ D D □
SUBJECT: Consider Receiving Update on the District's Financial Status Since January 28, 2009 Workshop
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
[X] Information Only
Q Briefing Item
[X] Recommended Motion
Receive update on the District's Financial Status since January 28,2009 Workshop and Recommending Adoption of Scenario 1D as per Second Quarter Revisions in GM Memo 09-052.
Fiscal Impact:
N/A Background/Discussion:
Staff has prepared Scenario 1.5 as requested by the Board. Scenario 1.5 represents further weakness in our economy resulting in an additional reduction in sales tax revenues. Both scenario 1.5 and scenario 1D have been updated with the current federal stimulus award that the District will receive. In view of the District's current financial situation, staff has done extensive work analyzing fiscal operations and working on
solutions. Staff developed three sets of economic assumptions; chose the first scenario of economic assumptions as most realistic and developed full ten year projections using those assumptions. Those assumptions and the ten year projections, along with a more extended
cash-flow analysis were presented at the Financial Workshop on January 28*.
Staff has been requested to provide all three sets of assumptions, along with a brief summary of the consequences of each set of assumptions. The assumptions are attached, the summary follows: All the numbers are estimates and may change as outside conditions change.
BOARD ACTION:
Approved as Recommended
[ ]
Other
[ ]
Approved with Modification(s) [ ]
The above order was passed on:
Linda A. Nemeroff, District Secretary
By
GM Memo No. 09-065a Meeting Date: March 11, 2009 Page 2 of 4
Staff is recommending adoption of revised Scenario 1D as Second Quarter Projection as per GM Memo 09-052.
Ten year forecasts were done with the following revenue and expense assumptions: (A) (B) (C) (D)
No fare increase, no service adjustments With full fare increase and no service adjustments No fare increase with service adjustments Lower fare increase with service adjustments.
Scenario 1
Projected Economic Environment-Recess/on ends early FY 2009-10, very slow recovery
Summary of results under each assumption for FY 2009-2010 (numbers in thousands)
GM Memo No. 09-065a
Meeting Date: March 11, 2009 Page 3 of 4
Scenario 2
Projected Economic Environment-Long Very Severe Recession with Strong Deflation Summary of results under each assumption for FY 2009-2010
Scenario 3
Projected Economic Environment - Relatively Shorter Severe Recession and High Inflation/hyperinflation right after Summary of results under each assumption for FY 2009-2010
Since the financial workshop on January 28, 2009 staff has continued to monitor budget developments in Sacramento and the President's Stimulus Plan. By all accounts, Staff believes that Scenario 1 is still the most likely economic environment over the next few years. Financial projections indicate that even with the passage of Measure W, the District faces difficult decisions regarding revenue enhancements and service efficiencies. There is
GM Memo No. 09-065a Meeting Date: March 11, 2009 Page 4 of 4
no immediate fix to the financial condition of the District. The agency must begin a process that addresses the core weaknesses in the operation. They are the following:
(1) Bring the agency's fare structure up to date with each category covering an equitable share of the District's operation; and (2) Address spiraling costs that create annual deficits and places the District in stressful cash flow positions.
As we begin the budget development process, staff plans to implement budget development strategies that address improving efficiencies and reduces expenses throughout the District. Prior Relevant Board Actions/Policies: N/A
Attachments: 1. Scenario 1.5
2. Scenario 1D
3. Biennial Budget Development Process - Assumptions 4.
Scenario 1: Ten Year Projections
5.
Scenario 2: Ten Year Projections
6.
Scenario 3: Ten Year Projections
Approved by: Prepared by: Date Prepared:
Rick Fernandez, General Manager Lewis G. Clinton, Jr., Chief Financial Officer March 5, 2009
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1.5: BETWEEN SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2 10-Year Projection
I
O o
O CO
> -I
3/5/2009 9 34 AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1.5: BETWEEN SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2 10-Year Projection
Notes: 1.- In the FY0809 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was originally reported as $ 3.8 Motion, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $ 12.8 Mtifion to the $ 16.6MtItion Deficit, The Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in (Ms report.
2. - The Service Adjustments figures represent the effect of net savings on service restructuring, meaning gross cost of restructured service NET of fares tost 3- Line 59 Total Expenses is Line 50 Total Operating Expenses, net of line 51 Service Adjustments, plus tine 58 Total Capital Expenses 4* Line 60 Surplus / (Deficit) is tine 52 Operating Surplus / (Deficit) plus Bne 53 Federal Stimulus minus tine 59 Total Expenses 3/ST2O09 934AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1.5: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
3/5/2009 9:34 AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1.5: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 06-2009. comparison made varsus FY 07-2008 Act
3/5O0O9 9:34 AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1D: WITH LOWER FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS
10-Year Projection
i o
? 3 in
ho
3/5/20O9 8:59 AM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1D: WITH LOWER FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS
10-Year Projection
Notes:
1- in the FYO8O9 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was originally reported as $ 3.8 MMon, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $
12.8 Million to the $16.6 Million Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part Of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report.
2.- The Service Adjustments figures represent the effect of net savings on service restructuring, meaning gross cost of restructured service NET of fares lost. 3. - tine 59 Total Expenses is Line SO Total Operating Expenses, net of line SI Service Adjustments, plus line 58 Total Capital Expenses 4 - Line 60 Surplus t (Deficit) is fine 52 Operating Surplus / (Deficit) plus line S3 Federal Stimulus minus Bne 59 Total Expenses 3/5/2009 8:59 AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses
10 Year Projection Yeari
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 6
Years
Year 7
Year 8
Years
Year 10
FY 08-2009
Revised Fcst FY 09-2010 FY 10-2011 FY 11-2012 FY 12-2013 FY 13-2014 FY 14-2015 FY 16-2016 FY 16-2017 FY 17-2018 REVENUES AND SUBSIDIES Operating
1
Total Farebox
4.9%
9.9%
-2.9%
-0.2% |
15.9%
10.0%
0.0%
0.096
2 BART Transfers
-51.0%
0.0%
4.0%
4.5%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3 Interest Income
30.0%
3.5% 3.0%
3.5% 3.0%
5 Other Revenue
-22.6%
1.0%
2.9%
16.7%
4.6%
2.0% 6.4%
-2.8%
20.0% 3.8% 9.0%
3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 2.9%
3.0% 3.5%
2.0% -2.6%
48.1% 3.0%
33.6%
4 Advertising
-78.0% -7.5%
-1.9%
0.8%
-7.4% -5.4% -5.7%
-10.5% -6.3% 0.0%
6 Rental Income
7
Other Operating Revenues
I 8 Total Operating Revenues
n/a -32.7%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 6.6% 14.5%
0.4%
0.4%
8 9%
0.4%
04961
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.0% \ 6.0%:
4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0% 3.5%
2.9% 2.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.0%
Subsidies
9 Transportation Develop. Act (TOA) 10 AB1107 11 Measure B
12 State Transit Assistance (STA) 13 Measure C/J
14
Total Sales-Tax based Subsidies
-54.6%
-100.0% j
82.796
80.1% \
-6.996
-6.3%]
2.7% j 2.9% 4.0% >
UDIV/0!
i
0.0%
4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
UDIV/0!
0.0%
2.996
4.3%
2.096 0.0% 1.4% \
2.096 0.0% 1.4%
UDIV/0!
5.7%!
15 Property Taxes 16 Measure AA/BB/W and New Meas XX
0.096 -0.996
2.096 100.0%
17
-0.296
78.596
18 ADA Paratransit Funding
-11.8%
27.9%
-4.0%
3.4%
6.0%
19 Federal Assistance (ADA)
-35.796
3.096
3.096
3.0%
3.0%
Total Property Taxes based Subsidies
20 ADA Paratransit Vehicles 21
Total ADA related Subsidies
-100.0% -317%
22 Federal Assistance - Bus Defer Income 23 Bridge Toll - Bus Deferral Income
n/a
24
-100.0%!
Total Bus Deferral Income and related Subsidies
25 Supplemental Service 26 Welfare To Work Funding
-100.0%
0.0% n/a
n/a 16.5%
n/a -1.2% ■
n/a 3.2%
\
0.0%\
4.0%
3.0%
3.5%
-61.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
7.2%
3.9%
3.0%
3.0%
miV/0!
2.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
50.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
18.0%
3.9%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% 2.1%
3.2% 3.0%
3.2%
3.2%
2.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.4%\
n/a 4.7%
n/a 3.1%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0% n/a
0.0% n/a
0.0% n/a
0.0%
0.0%
-3.5%
0.3%
0.8%
-2.0%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
71.4%
0.0%
0.0%
29 Federal Assistance Section 5307 Capital Funding
-100.0%
n/a
n/a
30l-BondPop
-100.0%
n/a
275.7%
31 RTIP Commtttmment 32 Lifeline STA JARC
n/a -30.9%
n/a n/a
-100.0% -100.0%
Total Subsidies
35 Total Revenues and Subsidies
-fO.0% I
12.8% 5.9% i
-21.0% \ -0.7%!
6.6%;
-10% I
n/a 0.0%
n/a n/a
28.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0%
0.0% n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0% n/a 1.1% -75.0% n/a
-100.0% n/a n/a
0.0%
n/a 1.1% -100.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
|
0.8%
0.9%
2.3%
2.4%\
2.5% I
3.8%\
2.0% I
2.0%\
0.1%
5.7%\
1.0%
n/a
6.2%
4.3% |
n/a
n/a
01%
3.3% I
1.0% n/a n/a
7.9% I
5.3% I
n/a
n/a
-24.0%
0.4%
0.0%
n/a
n/a
-45.7%
0.4%
0.0%
\
3.0%
n/a
17.0%
I 34
2.7%
3.0%
n/a
n/a n/a
28 Net I-Bond / PM Section 5307
-18.1% -11.8% \
3.1%
n/a
n/a n/a
27 RM2 subsidies
Total Other Federal. State and Local grants subs
3.1%
n/a
n/a n/a
n/a 1.2%
33
#DIV/0!
3/5/2009 8:59 AM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 0&-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
3/5/20O9 8:59 AM
AC TRANSIT
BUDGET DEPARTMENT BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11 ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
National. State and ReqionalEconomic Factors
US Unemployment
US Inflation
US Monetary base, Credit
o s z
m
2
US Household Income, Finances
O ©
US Stimulus package effects
AC TRANSIT BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11
ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
US Solvency - Interest Rates
US GDP Growth rates SAAR
CA Fiscal Situation, CA
Economy
CA House Prices, East Bay House prices
AC TRANSIT BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11
ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
East Bay Economy
District's Revenues: Ridership remains at recent
higher levels, but tends to
decrease. $$$ lost due to Ridership remains at recent
unemployment at low-income
higher levels, but tends to
riders compensated by new
decrease. Possibly difficult to riders from higher-income maintain in an increasing fare brackets. Fares adjustments Farebox
environment
politically not possible.
Ridership remains at recent higher levels, but tends to
decrease. Fares have to be dramatically and frequently increased after FY1011
AC TRANSIT
BUDGET DEPARTMENT BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11
ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
BART Transfers
Sales Tax Subsidies
I-Bond Funding (and related)
AC TRANSIT BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11 ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
Property Tax subsidies
ADA related subsidies
Interest Income
AC TRANSIT
BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11 ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
Advertising
Parking Tickets receipts
Stimulus Package Fund
AC TRANSIT
BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11
ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
Expenses (subject to market forces):
Salaries and Wages
Health care
Pension
Fuel
Scenario 3
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Recession ends early FY
Long Very Severe
Recession and High
2009-10, very slow
Recession with Strong
Inflation / Hyperinflation
recovery
Deflation
right after
Relatively Shorter Severe
AC TRANSIT
BUDGET DEPARTMENT
BIENNIAL BUDGET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FY 2009-10 & FY 2010-11 ASSUMPTIONS - PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NEXT THREE FISCAL YEARS
FY 2008-09 UP TO FY 2011-12
Interest Expense
ADA Consortia Expenses
GM MEMO 09-065A ATT.4
SCENARIO 1
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1 A: NO FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 AND NO SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1 A: NO FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 AND NO SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
Ng!g£_tn the FY0809 Sept 3rt 2008 Projection, the Dendt was originally reported as $3.8 Million, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $12.8 Million to the $16.6 Million Defidt. The Capital Reserves are part of me Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in thisreport.
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1 A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1 A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2000 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1B: WITH FULL FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 AND NO SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1B: WITH FULL FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 AND NO SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY0809 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was originally repotted as $ 3.8 Million, which resulted alter applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $ 12.8 Million to the $16.6 Million Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report.
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1C: NO FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1C: NO FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENT 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY0809 Sept 3rd 2008 Protection, the Deficit was originally reported as $ 3.8 Million, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $ 12.8 Million to the S 16.6 Million Deficit. The Capital Reserves am part of me Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report.
2/19/2009 3:30 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/16/2009 3:31 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
L For FY 08-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3 31 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1D: WITH LOWER FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 331 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 1D: WITH LOWER FARE INCREASE YEAR 2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Notes: 1.- In the FY08O9 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was originally reported as S 3.8 MUHon. which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around S 12.8 Million to the $ 16.6 Afifflon Deficit. Ttte Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report. 2- The Service Adjustments figures represent the effect of net savings on service restructuring, meaning gross cost of restructured service NET of tares tost. 3- Una 59 Total Expenses is Une 50 Total Operating Expenses. net of tine 51 Service Adjustments, plus Sne 58 Total Capital Expenses 4- Line 60 Surplus /(Deficit) isBneS2 Operating Surplus /(Deficit) plus Ene 53 Federal Stimulus minus Bne 59 Total Expenses 2/190009 331 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:31 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 1D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes:. For FY 08-2009. comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/1S/2O0S 3:31 PM
GM MEMO 09-065A ATT.5
SCENARIO 2
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2A SEVERE RECESSION NO FARE INCR YR2 NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:31 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2A SEVERE RECESSION NO FARE INCR YR2 NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY0809 Sept 3rd 2008 Protection, (to Oo/Wf was originally reported as $ 3.8 MUSon. which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $12.3 MitBontotho $ 16.6 Aff/ficn Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beaming balance in this report. 2/19/2009 3:31 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection Yeari
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
YearB
Year 9
Year 10
FY 08-2009
FY 16-2017 FY 17-2018 Revised Fcst FY 09-2010 FY 10-2011 FY 11-2012 FY 12-2013 FY 13-2014 FY 14-2015 FY 15-2016
REVENUES AND SUBSIDIES Operating 1
2 BART Transfers
3 Interest Income 4 Advertising
Other Operating Revenues Total Operating Re
Subsidies
9 Transportation Develop. Act (TDA) 10 AB 1107
11 Measure B 12 State Transit Assistance (STA) 13 Measure C/J
14
Total Sales-Tax based Subsidies
15 Property Taxes
16 Measure AA/BB/W and New Meas XX 17 Total Property Taxes based Subsidies 18 ADA Paratransit Funding
19 Federal Assistance (ADA) 20 ADA Paratransit Vehicles
21
0.0%
11.5%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
6.0%
30%
3.0%
3.0%
96.9%
3.5%
3.0% 2.9%
3.0%
3.5% 3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.0%
20%
2.9% 2.0%
2.9%
2.0% 9.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.0% 2.9%
2.0%
9.2%
2.9% 2.0% 2.9%
2.9%
■4.8%
20.0% 0.1% -0.8%
3.5% 3.0% -1.5% 16.7% 3.8% -2.3%
3.5% 3.0%
3.0% 3.5%
3.0%
50.9%
.0%
12.0%
0.4%
0.4%
10.2%
0.4%
2.9% 0.4%
-10.0%
-2.2%
0.0%
1.5%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
-10.0% -10.0%
-2.2%
0.0% 0.0%
1.5% 1.5%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0% 3.0%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
•100.0%
4.0% 3.0%
3.0%
-54.6%
4.0% 4.0% #DIV/0!
3.5%
3.5%
82.7%
80.1% -1.8%
0.0%
0.0% 7.6%
0.0% 3.9%
0.0% 3.0%
3.0%
-2.0% -0.9%
3.0% 0.0%
-1.8%
12.9%
-4.5%
-3.2%
-0.2%
-76.6%
0.3%
2.1%
-78.0% -7.5%
3.5%
n/a
6 Rental Income I 8
0.0%
-1.0%
-22.6%
5 Other Revenue
7
12.5%
4.9%
Total Farebox
Total ADA related Subsidies
22 Federal Assistance - Bus Defer Income 23 Bridge Toll - Bus Deferral Income 24 Total Bus Deferral Income and related Subsidies 25 Supplemental Service 26 Welfare To Work Funding 27 RM2 subsidies 28 Net I-Bond I PM Section 5307
-42.7%
-10.3%
31 RTIP Committmment
32 Lifeline STA JARC 33
Total Other Federal. State and Local grants subs
I 34 Total Suteldk 35 Total R(
d Subsidies
-2.2%
0.0% n/a
-3.5% 17.0%
5.9%
-5.f%
-6.5%
-2.0%
6.0%
6.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.0% 0.0%
6.0%
100.0%
50.0%
0.0%
•1.4%
-1.4%
20.4%
3.6%
0.0% 3.6%
n/a n/a n/a 0.0% n/a
0.3% 0.0%
-100.0%
0.0% n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.3%
1.5%
6.0%
3.1%
3.0%
21.0% 3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.9%
3.8%
10.1%
2.6%
0.0% 2.6%
3.5%
0.0% 3.0% 0.0%
1.9%
1.9%
2.3% 3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
3.0% 0.0%
2.3%
2.6%
n/a n/a
n/a n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0% n/a 0.8%
0.0% n/a
0.0% n/a 1.2%
0.0% n/a
1.2%
0.0%
-2.0% 71.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% n/a
0.0% n/a
n/a
n/a
-11.7%
n/a -1.2%
275.7% -100.0% •100.0% -9.0%
■12.7*
3.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
-30.9%
4.0% n/a
0.0%
3.0% 0.0% 0.5%
-100.0%
6.0% n/a
0.0% 3.9%
-1.8%
n/a -100.0%
n/a
0.0%
-35.7% 28.4%
-24.3%
n/a
-61.2% -1.5%
-22.8%
29 Federal Assistance Section 5307 Capital Funding -1036369.4% 30 I-Bond Pop
2.0% -10.8%
n/a n/a 25.7%
0.0%
0.0% n/a 1.1% -75.0%
0.0% -100.0%
0.0% n/a
1.1% ■100.0%
0.0%
0.0% n/a
1.0% n/a
0.0%
0.0% n/a
1.0% n/a
0.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a -21.3%
n/a 0.7%
n/a 0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
n/a -42.7%
1.7%
2.3%
9.8%
-0.3%
1.5%
4.3%
7.7%
-0.2%
2/1G/2009 3 31 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
NoiasLForFY 08-2009. comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3:31 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2B SEVERE RECESSION WITH FULL FARE INCR YR2 NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2B SEVERE RECESSION WITH FULL FARE INCR YR2 NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY0809 Soot 3td 2006 Projection, the Defiat was origtnaOy reported as $ 18 KGtSon. which msultod after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around S 12.B Mmon to the $ 16.6 MitSon Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report.
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2CO9 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009. comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2C SEVERE RECESSION NO FARE INCR YR2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2C SEVERE RECESSION NO FARE INCR YR2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
MIBoo to the S 16.6 Afiffion Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part of the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund beginning balance in this report.
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
NqJbsl ForFY 08-2009, comparison madB versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2D SEVERE RECESSION WITH LOWER FARE INCR YR2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 2D SEVERE RECESSION WITH LOWER FARE INCR YR2 WITH SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Nates: In the FY0SO9 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Oofidt was originally reported as $ 3.8 MBSon, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $ 12.8 MUBon to tho 9 16 6 MilBon Deficit The Capital Reserves are part at the Unrestricted Net Asset Fund begriming balance in this report. 2/19/2009 3.32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 2D: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009, comparison made vorsus FY 07-2008 Act
2/10/2009 332 PM
GM MEMO 09-065A ATT.6
SCENARIO 3
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3A RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: NO FARE INCREASE YR2, NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3A RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: NO FARE INCREASE YR2, NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
tiatSSL.In the FY0809 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was origmalfy reported as $ 3.8 imon, whk* resulted after apptyirw a Transfer from to the S 16.6 kffion Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part otth
2/19/2009 3:32 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 3A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 3A: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/18/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3B RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: WITH FULL FARE INCREASE YR2, NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3B RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: WITH FULL FARE INCREASE YR2, NO SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY08O9 Seat 3rd 2008 Projection, the Deficit was originaDy reported as $ 3.8 ASESoo. which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around $ 12,8 MGon to the $ 16.6 MHSon Deficit. The Capital Reserves are part of th
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 3B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 3B: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Motes. For FY 08-2009, comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Ad
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3C RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: WITH NO FARE INCREASE YR2, WITH SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3C RECESSION W HIGH INFLATION: WITH NO FARE INCREASE YR2, WITH SERV ADJUSTMENTS 10-Year Projection
Notes: In the FY0SO9 Sept 3rd 2008 Projection, the DefbX was orignaSy reported as S 3.8 NBSon, which resulted after applying a Transfer from Capital Reserves of around S 12.8 Mil&on to th&$ 16.6 MHSon Deficit The Capital Reserves are part of th
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT SCENARIO 3C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
AC TRANSIT
SCENARIO 3C: Growth Rates - Change over Previous Year Revenues and Expenses 10 Year Projection
Notes: For FY 08-2009. comparison made versus FY 07-2008 Act
2/19/2009 3:33 PM
